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Rollout + Variant

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 15 October 2014, at 6:10 p.m.

In Response To: 4a 3a Cube from Japan Semis (Stick)

I saw this and guessed it probably wasn't a cube because of the duplication of 8s. I wondered if it would make enough difference if I changed it to 8s and 9s. I do realize this has other minor implications.

Original

		White is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 145 4 point match pip: 141 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BaBBaB-----cE--ac-d--b-B-:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:4:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	49.86% (G:19.26% B:0.54%)	49.79% (G:19.37% B:0.54%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	50.14% (G:14.60% B:0.74%)	50.21% (G:14.46% B:0.83%)
Cubeless Equities	-0.034	+0.317
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.188
Double/Take:	+0.043 (-0.145)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.812)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.2%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Variant

		White is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 146 4 point match pip: 141 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BaBBaB-----cE-a-c-d--b-B-:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:4:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	51.49% (G:21.68% B:1.13%)	51.90% (G:21.16% B:1.37%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	48.51% (G:14.73% B:1.30%)	48.10% (G:14.71% B:2.10%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.023	+0.500
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.280	±0.008 (+0.273..+0.288)
Double/Take:	+0.274 (-0.007)	±0.011 (+0.263..+0.285)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.720)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.9%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 38836141 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		83.9%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 49 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• 4a 3a Cube from Japan Semis
  Stick -- Monday, 13 October 2014, at 1:35 p.m.
  • 4a 3a Cube from Japan Semis
    HOMINID -- Monday, 13 October 2014, at 3:21 p.m.
  • 4a 3a Cube from Japan Semis
    Keene -- Monday, 13 October 2014, at 3:40 p.m.
    • 4a 3a Cube from Japan Semis
      neilkaz -- Monday, 13 October 2014, at 4:02 p.m.
      • 4a 3a Cube from Japan Semis
        Keene -- Monday, 13 October 2014, at 7:10 p.m.
    • 4a 3a Cube from Japan Semis
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 13 October 2014, at 6:22 p.m.
  • Rollout + Variant
    Stick -- Wednesday, 15 October 2014, at 6:10 p.m.
  • 4a 3a Cube from Japan Semis
    HOMINID -- Thursday, 16 October 2014, at 8:23 p.m.