The comments have suggested other positions that I may roll out and post later, but this is what I have for now.
The rollouts below favor 13/11 for money and 7/5 ATS. 13/11 loses more cubeless gammons so one might naively think that it is more plausible ATS than for money, but the key point is that after 13/11, a White dance is a very efficient cube for money but way overkill ATS, so the gain/risk tradeoff of 13/11 doesn't fare well ATS.
Also it's perhaps worth remarking that even though White is leading in the match, her gammon value on a 2-cube is slightly elevated, as one might suspect since 4 points take her to Crawford. One can't blindly assume that the match leader's gammon value is depressed.
        
 
         
 | | White is Player 1
score: 2
pip: 129 | | 7 point match | pip: 119
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=--BBaCBB----bB-c-c-bbBb---:0:0:1:32:0:2:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 7/5 7/4* | eq: +0.233 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.01% (G:21.55% B:0.17%)
50.99% (G:9.08% B:0.53%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.219...+0.248) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 22 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/11 7/4* | eq: +0.202 (-0.031) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.65% (G:21.71% B:0.29%)
50.35% (G:12.05% B:0.65%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.192...+0.212) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 57 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 7/4* 4/2 | eq: +0.170 (-0.063) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.88% (G:19.77% B:0.17%)
50.12% (G:10.21% B:0.56%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.156...+0.184) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 55 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
For money:
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 129 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 119
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=--BBaCBB----bB-c-c-bbBb---:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/11 7/4* | eq: +0.165 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.77% (G:21.46% B:0.22%)
50.23% (G:12.00% B:0.56%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.156...+0.173) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 08 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/5 7/4* | eq: +0.087 (-0.077) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.99% (G:21.52% B:0.20%)
51.01% (G:8.98% B:0.37%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.070...+0.105) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 12 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 7/4* 4/2 | eq: +0.086 (-0.079) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.90% (G:19.11% B:0.19%)
50.10% (G:10.14% B:0.58%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.074...+0.097) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 09 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10