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Homerun or Smallball

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 17 October 2014, at 11:58 p.m.

In Response To: Homerun or Smallball (Seth)

Suppose I make the following simplifying assumptions:

1. Your chances of winning the match trailing 8-12 are 25%.

2. If you drop then you lose the match but have a 50% chance of averting a shutout.

3. Your utility function is a linear function of money.

Then if I calculated correctly, to take this cube, your chances of winning this game need to be at least 1/3. No way do you have that, so you should drop.

Assumption 1 is a bit optimistic for the taker and assumption 2 is a bit pessimistic for the dropper. If it's a clear drop with the simplifying assumptions then it must be an even clearer drop without them.

Messages In This Thread

• Homerun or Smallball
  Seth -- Friday, 17 October 2014, at 10:04 p.m.
  • Homerun or Smallball
    gudgen -- Friday, 17 October 2014, at 11:30 p.m.
  • Homerun or Smallball
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 17 October 2014, at 11:58 p.m.
    • Homerun or Smallball
      Sam Pottle -- Monday, 20 October 2014, at 3:49 a.m.
    • Homerun or Smallball
      Bill -- Monday, 20 October 2014, at 5:02 p.m.
      • Homerun or Smallball
        Timothy Chow -- Monday, 20 October 2014, at 8:45 p.m.
  • Homerun or Smallball
    Seth -- Sunday, 19 October 2014, at 1:15 p.m.
  • Another type of homerun
    Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 20 October 2014, at 4:09 a.m.