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BGonline.org Forums
Stupid bearoff rolls
Posted By: Bill Calton In Response To: Stupid bearoff rolls (Keene)
Date: Wednesday, 29 October 2014, at 5:59 p.m.
As always, every position is different. One on the bar or two on the bar must matter. Likelihood of gammons must be a factor as well as how strong is opponent's offense.
Jake may have some rules on this. Hopefully he will weigh in. Look closely at the spare on 3 point, or the ability to create one (like with 31).
Here is a snip from Phil article on the subject. (one man close out, three men off, perfect board, no spares)
"The rule of thumb here is simply to clear from the top points, starting with the 6 point, as much as possible. The reason for this is that there are generally fewer numbers that leave shots on the ensuing rolls, and also, your opponent might enter from the bar on the high points and your worries about leaving future shots are over. "
"Any rolls with a 2 or higher, you would simply move checkers off the 6 point, including any rolls of doubles. But all 1’s create a problem. 6-1 is forced (two checkers off the 6 point), but all other 1’s offer choices. With a 5-1 it is safer to take two checkers off the 5 point than to move two off the 6 point as the odds of leaving a shot on the next rolls are lower. We can simply count the number of rolls that leave shots with each play. If you move two checkers off the 6, you leave a shot the next time with 6-6, 5-5, 4-4, 6-5, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2, 5-4, 5-3, 5-2. Remember, non-double rolls like 6-5 counts as two rolls, because 5-6 and 6-5 are two different, possible rolls of the dice. So the total number of possible shots is 17 out of 36 possible rolls. Almost half the time! "
"If you move two checkers off the 5 point, the total number of shots is only 7 out of 36 6-6, 5-5, 4-4, 6-1, 5-1. A huge difference!"
"With a 4-1 you should clear the 4 point for the same reasons…fewer shots."
"What about 3-1? This one is very close, but what has always helped me is a rule of thumb that Jake Jacobs taught me years ago. He said that if your only concern is bearing off safely and you are not trying to win gammons, generally speaking, if you have a spare on your 3 point or higher, it is best to clear the 6 point. In this position, if you move both checkers off the 6 point, your 3 play will create a spare on the 3 point and that makes Jake’s advice right. This advice is key, and also applies when you already have spares (a third checker) on various points. For example, if you rolled a 5-1 and there was already a spare on the 3, 4, or 5 point, then instead of clearing the 5 point you can clear the 6 point, and the same applies if you rolled a 4-1."
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