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Stupid bearoff rolls

Posted By: Keene
Date: Wednesday, 29 October 2014, at 7:07 p.m.

In Response To: Stupid bearoff rolls (Bill Calton)

So, yes, I agree with all of the comments from Phil. Anyone can count the shots, and compare, but really, the problems start to mount when you are only thinking 1ply. Adjusting that to 2 and 3ply starts to cause shot counting, future shot counting, repeater counting and all the other adjustments you have to make a significant and lengthy process - also one that quite frankly, I can do for theoretical play, but OTB play, that makes it much harder for me, and will burn more time off a clock than I want to spend.

Hence, I am looking for a rule that is encompassing, and is going to be right at least 90% of the time. I can live with outlier positions, and I can do the fast calculations required for immediate positions, but what is the rule here? How does it change based on your gammon chasing? How many gammons should you give up for 2 or 3ply security? Where's the line?

I tend to use raw crossover counts for gammon chances, as an FYI - not perfect, I know, but, it does a reasonable job for me.

K

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