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OLM 20141030A The Prime Factors CONSULTATION

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 31 October 2014, at 4:56 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20141030A The Prime Factors CONSULTATION (Jason Lee)

The 3 seems clear to me -- 10/7. Slotting the 3-point (which got a couple votes although accompanied by different 4-moves) is a bit deep as it can't form a prime with the 10-point and can't be directly covered from the 10-point. The double slot looks too loose, especially in light of the single slot being possibly too loose by itself (more on that below).

It seems as though the key question is: "do we slot our 4-point?" Note that we are vulnerable on the 22-point. That argues for caution on our side, and particularly in the homeboard. With cooperating rolls opp likely Points-on-Head no matter what we do, but loose hits are far more prevalent (but also more risky) and blots in our homeboard take some of the sting out of the return hits.

Obviously there is a limit to the amount of caution one exercises. 13/6 is super cautious (received no votes, BTW...) but IMO we can and should try for some kind of improvement. With checkers spread out we have a lot of chances of simultaneously entering and covering something.

Regarding the cube potential, I don't have a ref-pos for this myself, but note that compared to a standard 20-point holding game (down 33 pips), we are worse off with the blot on the 22-point but opp is worse off owning the 11-point (IMO) which may be a problem to clear. So I'm calling it a wash, although I'm sure it isn't....

If the cube is close (to the Take/Pass edge) then our choice of play could easily determine which side of the fence we fall. But making some kind of diversionary misplay if we were sure it's going to be a pass is typically fraught with danger, and other than 20/13 :) I don't know what would fit that bill.

I guess I can read what others say and change my mind. For now I'm sticking with my initial instinct (and vote):

10/7, 13/9

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