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I just could not run here

Posted By: Keene
Date: Monday, 3 March 2008, at 11:33 p.m.

In Response To: I just could not run here (Stanley E. Richards)

So, a quick n dirty OTB thing: 10/36 times your opponent will leave you a single shot (any 2 apart from 22), then you must hit it to save the G (hit and get round lol), so you have a 11/36 * 10/36 - thats 110/1296 - so around 8%. How much match equity do you have at -5,-1? Around 15% depending on your MET. So, even if you hit your 8% shot, you still have to get all the way round without getting hit back to make staying worthwhile.

In short - I run - I am still in the match at 4-0 down crawford, whereas completely out $30 if I get bg'd.

Sorry I didnt get a chance to talk some more Stanley, the chouette I was in turned into quite a long one, and in fact it was still going at 7pm sunday night when I left.

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