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Rollout: Just make the DMP play

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 5 November 2014, at 3:53 p.m.

In Response To: Just make the DMP play (Timothy Chow)

Speaking of categorizing errors, I categorize this as a "pre-backgame" position. White has an anchor and a half, and hitting gives her the chance of making a second anchor, so we have to assess that tradeoff.

According to the rollout, the DMP play is clear: anchor. For money, the rollout says that the extra (net) gammon wins of the double hit (or even hit and cover) outweigh the extra losses, and anchoring is a whopper.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 164 1 point match pip: 137 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-aBbDBB-b-bB---bab-baA-A:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 53

1.	Rollout1	Bar/20 23/20	eq: +0.131
	Player: Opponent: 56.54% (G:22.24% B:0.72%) 43.46% (G:7.68% B:0.60%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.126...+0.136) - [100.0%] Duration: 19 minutes 28 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/22* 23/18*	eq: +0.089 (-0.042)
	Player: Opponent: 54.46% (G:34.61% B:2.97%) 45.54% (G:9.48% B:0.86%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.082...+0.097) - [0.0%] Duration: 30 minutes 47 seconds
3.	Rollout1	Bar/22* 6/1	eq: +0.050 (-0.081)
	Player: Opponent: 52.49% (G:35.37% B:1.96%) 47.51% (G:10.56% B:1.15%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.043...+0.057) - [0.0%] Duration: 25 minutes 37 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

---

For money:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 164 Unlimited Game pip: 137 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-A-aBbDBB-b-bB---bab-baA-A:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.	Rollout1	Bar/22* 23/18*	eq: +0.401
	Player: Opponent: 55.37% (G:28.62% B:0.86%) 44.63% (G:10.07% B:0.44%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.391...+0.410) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 53 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/22* 6/1	eq: +0.340 (-0.061)
	Player: Opponent: 53.77% (G:30.15% B:0.65%) 46.23% (G:11.21% B:0.54%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.328...+0.351) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 45 minutes
3.	Rollout2	Bar/20 23/20	eq: +0.289 (-0.112)
	Player: Opponent: 57.09% (G:16.57% B:0.31%) 42.91% (G:8.91% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.275...+0.303) - [0.0%] Duration: 21 minutes 50 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• Just make the DMP play
  Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 4 November 2014, at 1:28 a.m.
  • Just make the DMP play
    Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 4 November 2014, at 3:58 a.m.
    • Just make the DMP play
      Stick -- Tuesday, 4 November 2014, at 5:32 a.m.
      • Just make the DMP play
        Casper Van der Tak -- Tuesday, 4 November 2014, at 7:29 a.m.
  • Rollout: Just make the DMP play
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 5 November 2014, at 3:53 p.m.