| |
BGonline.org Forums
OLM 20141207A The Dilly Builders
Posted By: Wolfgang In Response To: OLM 20141207A The Dilly Builders (Jason Lee)
Date: Sunday, 7 December 2014, at 11:05 p.m.
My candidate moves are:
- 7/4(2) 6/0
The resulting gap on the 3-point will cause a lot of troubles when we continue bearing off. Reject- 7/4(2) 5/2(2)
I want to reject this play immediately, because it will cause long-term problems whilst we will be bearing off our checkers. The gaps on the 3- and 5-point are awful. Reject- 7/4(2) 6/3(2)
This play leaves 11 shots (30,6%) for the PrimeFactors. Even if they don't hit in the next roll, we will have further 11 rolls which will result in a hitting chance for them. If the PrimeFactors do not hit at the first opportunity, they have about 7% (of) hitting chances later on: 25/26 x 11/36 x 1/3 = 7%. Contender- 7/4 6/3(3)
This play leaves 13 shots (36,1%) for the PrimeFactors. If they don't hit immediately, we will have 7 upcoming rolls which will produce hitting chances for them. If the PrimeFactors do not hit at the first opportunity, they have about 4% (of) hitting chances later on: 23/36 x 7/36 x 1/3 = 4%. ContenderI am torn between 7/4(2) 6/3(2) and 7/4 6/3(3). From a mathematical perspective, I am not able to estimate precisely which of the two plays are better in the long run. Currently, there is still a blot in the PrimeFactor's home. Therefore, it might be advisable to take a slightly higher risk now in order to get a safer position afterwards. Moreover, the PrimeFactor's 6's are duplicated if we play 7/4 6/3(3), as they need a 6 for covering their blot in the home and a 6 for hitting our blot.
All in all, I tend to play 7/4 6/3(3)
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.