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BGonline.org Forums
Sax vs Kaz Chicago #2
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Sax vs Kaz Chicago #2 (neilkaz)
Date: Friday, 7 March 2008, at 5:33 p.m.
Pass for 43 and change, take and win for the match (100%), take and lose simple for 18.2%, take and lose gammon for 0%. Let's say that the prorated losses are 15%. So risk 43 - 15 = 28 out of a total available of 100 - 15 = 85. 28/85 ~ 28/84 = 1/3 = 33% is the takepoint.
Something I've found useful as a starting point for these kinds of positions is this: if both players require a single die (and there is no chance of the partial primes breaking) then the roller has a 59% chance to get his first. Note that escaping isn't necessarily equivalent to winning, though.
Here Blue is in no danger of breaking but White's is imminent. Also, besides needing a 3 die White also needs at least a four to jump the second half (3-3 being particularly painful). If Blue enters now he gets the bonus hit which further adds to his winning chances. All of these secondary considerations should (IMO) push Blue into the doubling zone.
White has several winning options. Besides the direct one (that Blue stays on the bar and White escapes), he could escape one later, get a second sent back and make a high anchor, or even get one closed out and still scratch out a win. 33% is a lot to get from a bunch of small pieces. Let's look at the direct piece and see how far that gets White:
Blue fans (25/36) X White rolls a 3 (11/36) * Blue fails to hit (~25/36 + 5/36) * White wins from there (85%?) ~~ (2/3)*(1/3)*(5/6)*(5/6) = 50/324 = 2/13 = 15.4%. That's not yet half of what White needs. I don't think the rest of his chances will add up to 17+%.
D+P.
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