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51S-42P-66O-41 -- Rollout and variants (51S-53P-66O-41 and 51S-31P-66O-41)

Posted By: Igor
Date: Friday, 26 December 2014, at 3:05 p.m.

In Response To: 51S-42P-66O-41 (Igor)

Hitting two and building with 13/8 are virtually tied.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 137 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 161 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa-B-D-B---bE---bbe---bB-:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.	Rollout1	6/2* 2/1*	eq: -0.157
	Player: Opponent: 47.00% (G:14.95% B:0.51%) 53.00% (G:19.20% B:1.68%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.161...-0.153) - [96.9%] Duration: 1 hour 40 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/8	eq: -0.162 (-0.005)
	Player: Opponent: 46.74% (G:13.83% B:0.60%) 53.26% (G:18.21% B:1.39%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.166...-0.159) - [3.1%] Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 28529924 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

But make our home board a hair weaker (51S-53P-66O-41) and 13/8 is best.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 137 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 159 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaB--D-B---bE---bbe---bB-:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.	Rollout1	13/8	eq: -0.279
	Player: Opponent: 43.86% (G:12.79% B:0.56%) 56.14% (G:18.97% B:1.39%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.283...-0.274) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 01 minute
2.	Rollout1	6/2* 2/1*	eq: -0.292 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 43.74% (G:13.89% B:0.46%) 56.26% (G:20.35% B:1.70%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.297...-0.288) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 08 minutes
1 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 61143082 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Finally, if our 5pt is made instead (51S-31P-66O-41), then the ace can be played 6/5. Even though our blot on the 9pt is subject to 8 shots, our structure vs. white's structure indicates we should be looking for a priming game.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 137 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aa--BD-B---bE---bbe---bB-:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.	Rollout1	13/9 6/5	eq: -0.033
	Player: Opponent: 50.12% (G:14.77% B:0.66%) 49.88% (G:17.60% B:1.51%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.037...-0.028) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/8	eq: -0.044 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 49.48% (G:14.79% B:0.65%) 50.52% (G:16.89% B:1.27%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.047...-0.040) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 31 minutes
3.	Rollout2	6/2* 2/1*	eq: -0.088 (-0.055)
	Player: Opponent: 48.68% (G:15.61% B:0.52%) 51.32% (G:18.88% B:1.61%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.097...-0.079) - [0.0%] Duration: 26 minutes 37 seconds
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 58887020 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 58887020 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• 51S-42P-66O-41
  Igor -- Wednesday, 24 December 2014, at 4:00 p.m.
  • 51S-42P-66O-41
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 24 December 2014, at 4:31 p.m.
    • 51S-42P-66O-41
      Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 24 December 2014, at 5:04 p.m.
  • 51S-42P-66O-41 -- Rollout and variants (51S-53P-66O-41 and 51S-31P-66O-41)
    Igor -- Friday, 26 December 2014, at 3:05 p.m.