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Generalizing John's 31 Position

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Sunday, 4 January 2015, at 10:22 p.m.

In Response To: Generalizing John's 31 Position (Paul Weaver)

Thanks, Paul, for a fine analysis. I would have hit in John's OP. Given your explication, I would hit in your second variant, but not in the first.

The difficulty in hitting is that 12 of the 20 return hits put your opponent in escape position. When that happens, you get to roll first in a contest where you and your opponent both face a five-point block. If you owned the cube, you would be a favorite, but not nearly as good as you were before hitting. With your opponent owning the cube, as in the OP, you become a small underdog.

On the other hand, a subtle advantage in hitting is that your opponent may cough up another blot when he cracks. If he does, and you can subsequently hit it, your gammon win rate goes up. In addition, you may hit the outside blot that he already has.

Mike

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