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Backgammon Boot Camp #1-13 (Anchors) -- Rollouts

Posted By: Igor
Date: Tuesday, 20 January 2015, at 3:21 a.m.

In Response To: Backgammon Boot Camp #1-13 (Anchors) (Igor)

We don't have enough timing to squat on the ace point, and coming out to the 22pt allows white to safely dump checkers behind our anchor, if needed. So, the middling play of switching to the 23pt anchor is best, but it's still fairly close.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 120
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 147
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----BBBB-B-AdB---d-cbb--B-:1:1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 11

1.Rollout124/23(2) 9/8(2)eq: -0.486
Player:
Opponent:		23.88% (G:3.07% B:0.10%)
76.12% (G:7.05% B:0.24%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.488...-0.483) - [100.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 57 seconds
2.Rollout124/23(2) 11/10 9/8eq: -0.492 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		23.79% (G:3.10% B:0.10%)
76.21% (G:7.33% B:0.31%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.494...-0.490) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 50 seconds
3.Rollout224/23(2) 11/9eq: -0.496 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		23.53% (G:3.00% B:0.10%)
76.47% (G:7.22% B:0.24%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.499...-0.492) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 53 seconds
4.Rollout324/22(2)eq: -0.507 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:		22.83% (G:1.48% B:0.04%)
77.17% (G:4.11% B:0.11%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.511...-0.503) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 56 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66195026
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66195026
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 66195026
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

The only exception, as Stick mentioned, is that at GS it's best to upgrade the anchor to reduce our gammon losses.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 120
1 point match
pip: 147
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----BBBB-B-AdB---d-cbb--B-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 11

1.Rollout124/23(2) 9/8(2)eq: -0.513
Player:
Opponent:		24.36% (G:2.89% B:0.32%)
75.64% (G:12.04% B:0.91%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.517...-0.508) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 11 seconds
2.Rollout124/22 9/8(2)eq: -0.531 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		23.43% (G:2.25% B:0.18%)
76.57% (G:19.34% B:1.28%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.536...-0.527) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 18 seconds
3.Rollout224/22(2)eq: -0.544 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:		22.82% (G:1.21% B:0.07%)
77.18% (G:7.56% B:0.16%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.547...-0.540) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 14 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 49382268
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 57127467
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 120
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 147
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----BBBB-B-AdB---d-cbb--B-:0:0:1:11:0:1:1:2:10
Blue to play 11

1.Rollout124/23(2) 9/8(2)eq: -0.441
Player:
Opponent:		24.56% (G:3.39% B:0.24%)
75.44% (G:13.03% B:0.79%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.446...-0.436) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 08 seconds
2.Rollout124/22 11/10 9/8eq: -0.480 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:		23.04% (G:2.97% B:0.15%)
76.96% (G:21.32% B:1.19%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.485...-0.474) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 06 seconds
3.Rollout124/22 9/8(2)eq: -0.484 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		22.83% (G:2.97% B:0.19%)
77.17% (G:20.81% B:0.99%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.489...-0.479) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 58 seconds
4.Rollout124/22(2)eq: -0.513 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:		22.74% (G:1.59% B:0.13%)
77.26% (G:7.59% B:0.28%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.518...-0.509) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 11 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 49382268
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 120
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 147
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----BBBB-B-AdB---d-cbb--B-:0:0:1:11:1:0:1:2:10
Blue to play 11

1.Rollout124/22(2)eq: -0.619
Player:
Opponent:		22.49% (G:1.16% B:0.08%)
77.51% (G:3.47% B:0.07%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.623...-0.616) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 04 seconds
2.Rollout124/23(2) 9/8(2)eq: -0.651 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		23.86% (G:2.41% B:0.32%)
76.14% (G:6.42% B:0.56%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.656...-0.646) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 58 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 49382268
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

One interesting observation: the best move doesn't even make it through the move filter at DMP and GG.

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