My claim is basically that the Woolsey Law isn't as universal as it is stated in the article and repeated in common wisdom. At certain match scores your hand shouldn't go anywhere near the cube unless you're absolutely sure it's a double.
In the following positions, you lead -3,-8, holding a 2 cube, in a ~64-82 race. In general, not doubling when it's a double is an error, but the trailer usually doesn't give up as much equity on a wrong decision as the leader does. This is in general the opposite effect of money play, so I think this can be extrapolated to the fact that the leader should be more careful with the cube at all match scores. That's not to say the Woolsey Law is out the window: I would say that you should be looser with the cube if you're not sure whether it's a take or a drop. But if you're up -2, -4, or -2, -3, or up 5-0 to 15 holding a 4-cube, etc., and you have no idea whether a position is ND/T, D/T, D/P (possibly optional: or TG/P, or TG/T), you should do your best to figure it out before throwing a cube that might be a huge disaster.
For money play, I think the Woolsey Law is OK as stated. For match play, I would tend to double sooner, but if I can't figure out the true evaluation of a position, I will often roll. Yeah, maybe I make a lot of errors this way, and miss out on my opponents giving me equity from similar errors, but I think I protect myself better in the long run.
The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 5 (match to 8 points)
Move number 10: Blue on roll, cube decision?
| White | 82 |
|---|---|
| |
| Blue | 64 |
Position ID: 7O6OAAC29w4AAA Match ID: UQkAAQAAKAAA | |
• Blue doubles
Alert: wrong double ( -0.1119)!
| Cube decision | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-ply cubeless equity | +0.8313 | (Money: +0.8313) | |
| 0.9157 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0843 0.0000 0.0000 | |||
| Cubeful equities: | |||
| 1. | No double | +0.9316 | |
| 2. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | +0.0684 |
| 3. | Double, take | +0.8198 | -0.1119 |
| Proper cube action: | No redouble, take (62.1%) | ||
Up 18 pips, doubling is a whopper. White might pass, but the error isn't as big.
The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 5 (match to 8 points)
Move number 11: Blue on roll, cube decision?
| White | 82 |
|---|---|
| |
| Blue | 68 |
Position ID: 7O6OAADaew8AAA Match ID: UQkAAQAAKAAA | |
• Blue doubles
Alert: wrong double ( -0.4136)!
| Cube decision | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-ply cubeless equity | +0.7412 | (Money: +0.7412) | |
| 0.8706 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.1294 0.0000 0.0000 | |||
| Cubeful equities: | |||
| 1. | No double | +0.8262 | |
| 2. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | +0.1738 |
| 3. | Double, take | +0.4126 | -0.4136 |
| Proper cube action: | No redouble, take (70.4%) | ||
Up only 14 pips, doubling is a quadruple whopper, whereas passing is only .17.
The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 5 (match to 8 points)
Move number 12: Blue on roll, cube decision?
| White | 82 |
|---|---|
| |
| Blue | 60 |
Position ID: 7O6OAAB17w0AAA Match ID: UQkAAQAAKAAA | |
• Blue doubles
| Cube decision | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-ply cubeless equity | +0.8950 | (Money: +0.8950) | |
| 0.9475 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0525 0.0000 0.0000 | |||
| Cubeful equities: | |||
| 1. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | |
| 2. | Double, take | +1.1075 | +0.1075 |
| 3. | No double | +0.9786 | -0.0214 |
| Proper cube action: | Redouble, pass | ||
Up 22 pips, RD/P is right, although not doubling isn't so bad. If White mistakenly takes then Blue has gained a lot though.
The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 5 (match to 8 points)
Move number 15: Blue on roll, cube decision?
| White | 82 |
|---|---|
| |
| Blue | 62 |
Position ID: 7O6OAAB19w4AAA Match ID: UQkAAQAAKAAA | |
• Blue doubles
| Cube decision | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-ply cubeless equity | +0.8698 | (Money: +0.8698) | |
| 0.9349 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0651 0.0000 0.0000 | |||
| Cubeful equities: | |||
| 1. | Double, take | +0.9937 | |
| 2. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | +0.0063 |
| 3. | No double | +0.9650 | -0.0287 |
| Proper cube action: | Redouble, take | ||
Up 20 pips, Blue should redouble and it doesn't much matter whether White takes or drops. Not doubling is an error. At the same time it's hard to fault Blue for not doubling if he evaluates it as ND/T.
The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 5 (match to 8 points)
Move number 13: Blue on roll, cube decision?
| White | 82 |
|---|---|
| |
| Blue | 63 |
Position ID: 7O6OAAC19w4AAA Match ID: UQkAAQAAKAAA | |
• Blue doubles
Alert: wrong double ( -0.0321)!
| Cube decision | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-ply cubeless equity | +0.8536 | (Money: +0.8536) | |
| 0.9268 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0732 0.0000 0.0000 | |||
| Cubeful equities: | |||
| 1. | No double | +0.9524 | |
| 2. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | +0.0476 |
| 3. | Double, take | +0.9203 | -0.0321 |
| Proper cube action: | No redouble, take (40.3%) | ||
With a 19 pip lead, doubling is an error, but slightly less of an error than passing would be.
The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 5 (match to 8 points)
Move number 16: Blue on roll, cube decision?
| White | 82 |
|---|---|
| |
| Blue | 64 |
Position ID: 7O6OAAC1dw8AAA Match ID: UQkAAQAAKAAA | |
• Blue doubles
Alert: wrong double ( -0.0917)!
| Cube decision | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-ply cubeless equity | +0.8370 | (Money: +0.8370) | |
| 0.9185 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0815 0.0000 0.0000 | |||
| Cubeful equities: | |||
| 1. | No double | +0.9372 | |
| 2. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | +0.0628 |
| 3. | Double, take | +0.8455 | -0.0917 |
| Proper cube action: | No redouble, take (59.4%) | ||
Up 18 pips again, doubling isn't a whopper but it's now a bigger error than passing.
The score (after 0 games) is: White 0, Blue 5 (match to 8 points)
Move number 17: Blue on roll, cube decision?
| White | 82 |
|---|---|
| |
| Blue | 65 |
Position ID: 7O6OAAC1ew8AAA Match ID: UQkAAQAAKAAA | |
• Blue doubles
Alert: wrong double ( -0.1603)!
| Cube decision | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-ply cubeless equity | +0.8172 | (Money: +0.8172) | |
| 0.9086 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0914 0.0000 0.0000 | |||
| Cubeful equities: | |||
| 1. | No double | +0.9163 | |
| 2. | Double, pass | +1.0000 | +0.0837 |
| 3. | Double, take | +0.7560 | -0.1603 |
| Proper cube action: | No redouble, take (65.7%) | ||
Up 17, and doubling is nearing the double whopper range.