[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Woolsey's law

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 10:21 p.m.

In Response To: Woolsey's law (Matt Cohn-Geier)

At certain match scores your hand shouldn't go anywhere near the cube unless you're absolutely sure it's a double.

I said something like that about the -2,-4 score.

My claim is basically that the Woolsey Law isn't as universal as it is stated in the article and repeated in common wisdom.

I think we could agree that the Woolsey Law presumes that one has some skill in evaluating positions and knows something about one's doubling window and opponent's take point. In a money game we all know what that is: 75-78%, depending, gammon-adjusted. In a straight race in a money game, one would use a race formula. If that leaves one unclear whether it's a take, then WL: it must be a double. These new examples are all straight races at a match score. If one doesn't know that Trailer's takepoint on a 2-cube trailing 9-away 4-away is not 22% but about 6.5%, then I must agree that the Woolsey Law won't be of much use. But if one does know one's match equity table, then the Woolsey Law is just as useful as in a money game.

"Why did you lose? . . . Because it was one of the two possible outcomes." -- Tak Morioka, Chicago Point, August 1991

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.