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Position from Madison 2007

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 14 March 2008, at 2:09 a.m.

In Response To: Position from Madison 2007 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

A post went to etherspace, a good thing, here's the short version:

First diagram I figure his takepoint is 16% and you win about 95%. So pass. I'd have cashed unless I thought I could fool him into a take, as you did with your 3-3.

Your double to 4: double and still a clear pass. I figured you jump 55% in 1 roll, 80% in 2 rolls, and surprisingly, if I'm close to correct, 86% by the third roll still having a closed board. If you win 95% of those and half the rest, he doesn't have a take.

His double to 8: No double/take. His cash point is 60%, if he doubles he wins 11/36 less a good portion of your immediate entries, and then wins about 75% of the remainder, which sums to about 19%. If he doesn't double and hits, he can double you out if you fan and double you in if you don't. I figured he wins about 25% all told. At this point I guessed that he does better by waiting, 19% of 85% ME being less, I think, than ... 25% of 50% ME + 75% of 16% ME, plus something for his takable 8-cubes.

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