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Woolsey's Law Revisited

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 14 March 2008, at 5:59 p.m.

In Response To: Woolsey's Law Revisited (neilkaz)

but am quite sure that Blue is TG at this score as he wins loads of gammons

Yup, that's the other half the decision. If I wasn't sure it was a take (and maybe it's not -- I'd still be sure, but wrong), I'd still know that gammon wins raise the bottom of the doubling window at this score. In this position the bottom of the window, I would estimate, is actually higher than the top, that is, no window!

In a money game I might estimate GWC at 75-81%, think take/drop, who knows? and (KL) double. How wrong could doubling be? Probably not very. If I only win 71%, I still have a decent double. If I win 85%, it's probably double/pass anyway.

At this score in this position a super-me might estimate GWC at 74.5-75.5%, but even not-super-me knows that my super-accurate estimate would not have identified my doubling window, or the margin for inconsequential error.

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