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Ed thought about this...

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Saturday, 21 February 2015, at 5:42 a.m.

In Response To: Ed thought about this... (AP)

"What's the big deal? Have you memorized the takepoint at 7-away, 13-away on a recube to 8? If not, could you calculate it OTB?"

Lets not make this game more complicated than it already is. Since the game will be MATCH DECISIVE if Ed cubes to 8, the take point is the ME at 3a13a assuming D/P.

What is 3a13a? Well Neil's Numbers gives 4.5 for 13. 50+45=95. However, however, when the leader is clearly above 90% in longish matches, we need to reduce the leader's chances somewhat when using NN or similar. Thus I expect the real equity at 3a13a to be about 93%. Clearly Ed is no where near that here and clearly Ray has lots more than 7%.

However, as Stein says, sometimes when you think about things like this for a couple turns and then cube when you improve somewhat, your opp may be fooled into now thinking he has less chances than he actually does and pass in error.

... neilkaz ...

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