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ROLLOUTS: Nine more

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Monday, 17 March 2008, at 1:23 a.m.

In Response To: Position from Madison 2007 (Matt Cohn-Geier)

Cliffs Notes: Big surprises, compared to the G11 rollouts. White's play may even be correct.

Memorizing ELO-adjusted METs is a level of fanaticism one would only be able to find amongst chess players.

Yeah, who'd do that? (Someone must have).

I was half-joking with the chess players quip. Only half. I've forgotten so much about chess now it's staggering; I pull out old notebooks filled with games and analysis (which, in chess, is basically a lot of long lists of moves) and wonder what I ever saw.

If I had to guess, Trice is the obvious one, and perhaps Kleinman or Zare would.

The first three are with the JT 100 point table rolled out on 2-ply.

The score (after 0 games) is: White 4, Blue 0 (match to 9 points)

Move number 8: White to play 32

White	88
Blue	81
Position ID: c3cHAEDbdgNAEA Match ID: AYEpAUAAAAAA

• White doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.8886	(Money: +0.8987)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.3642	+0.3642
3.	No double	+0.9887	-0.0113
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player White owns 2-cube 0.9365 0.0281 0.0003 - 0.0635 0.0026 0.0000 +0.8886 +0.9887 Standard error 0.0005 0.0005 0.0000 - 0.0005 0.0001 0.0000 0.0011 0.0016 Player Blue owns 4-cube 0.9502 0.0345 0.0006 - 0.0498 0.0010 0.0000 +1.5070 +1.3642 Standard error 0.0009 0.0031 0.0004 - 0.0009 0.0002 0.0000 0.0035 0.0067
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1056626726 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 0 games) is: White 4, Blue 0 (match to 9 points)

Move number 17: White on roll, cube decision?

White	76
Blue	81
Position ID: c3cHAEDbdgcAEA Match ID: AQEgAUAAAAAA

• White doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.7447	(Money: +0.7572)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.8309
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.1691
3.	No double	+0.8167	-0.0142
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player White owns 2-cube 0.8650 0.0307 0.0003 - 0.1350 0.0038 0.0001 +0.7447 +0.8167 Standard error 0.0010 0.0012 0.0000 - 0.0010 0.0003 0.0000 0.0021 0.0023 Player Blue owns 4-cube 0.8791 0.0317 0.0002 - 0.1209 0.0037 0.0003 +1.2090 +0.8309 Standard error 0.0012 0.0035 0.0000 - 0.0012 0.0003 0.0002 0.0046 0.0101
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1164 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1056795567 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

The score (after 0 games) is: White 4, Blue 0 (match to 9 points)

Move number 21: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	97
Blue	81
Position ID: 2wsAAG7u7gAACA Match ID: UgkgAUAAAAAA

• Blue doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.0278)! [bad]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		-0.6655	(Money: -0.7212)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	-0.4354
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+1.4354
3.	Double, take	-0.4632	-0.0278
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (1.9%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 4-cube 0.1749 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.8251 0.0692 0.0017 -0.6655 -0.4354 Standard error 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0005 0.0008 0.0005 0.0008 0.0009 Player White owns 8-cube 0.1818 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.8182 0.3048 0.0029 -0.4632 -0.4632 Standard error 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0005 0.0105 0.0005 0.0021 0.0021
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1056795567 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Ignore the White checkers on the bar. I seem to have stumbled across a huge bug in GNU.

Big difference in the results. Cashing is clear, and although I said that "obviously" I have to double after rolling 33, even that isn't so clear--it's barely a cube and an easy take. Keene says that his play is okay, "assuming he knows hes a fish", but unfortunately for me it doesn't matter whether he thinks it's a take based on the position (which, of course, it's not even close) or thinks it's a take because of the skewed strengths. As long as Blue makes whatever the correct cube action is, he cuts down on my equity.

Now the next 3, with JT 100 tables and 2-ply vs. 0-ply:

The score (after 0 games) is: White 4, Blue 0 (match to 9 points)

Move number 8: White to play 32

White	88
Blue	81
Position ID: c3cHAEDbdgNAEA Match ID: AYEpAUAAAAAA

• White doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.8882	(Money: +0.8988)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.3724	+0.3724
3.	No double	+0.9873	-0.0127
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player White owns 2-cube 0.9359 0.0294 0.0003 - 0.0641 0.0026 0.0000 +0.8882 +0.9873 Standard error 0.0006 0.0007 0.0000 - 0.0006 0.0001 0.0000 0.0013 0.0025 Player Blue owns 4-cube 0.9504 0.0272 0.0008 - 0.0496 0.0013 0.0000 +1.5074 +1.3724 Standard error 0.0010 0.0021 0.0004 - 0.0010 0.0003 0.0000 0.0040 0.0077
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1056795567 and quasi-random dice
Player 0:
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Player 1:
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

The score (after 0 games) is: White 4, Blue 0 (match to 9 points)

Move number 17: White on roll, cube decision?

White	76
Blue	81
Position ID: c3cHAEDbdgcAEA Match ID: AQEgAUAAAAAA

• White doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.7454	(Money: +0.7569)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.8451
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.1549
3.	No double	+0.8196	-0.0255
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player White owns 2-cube 0.8655 0.0293 0.0004 - 0.1345 0.0037 0.0001 +0.7454 +0.8196 Standard error 0.0012 0.0010 0.0000 - 0.0012 0.0003 0.0000 0.0024 0.0029 Player Blue owns 4-cube 0.8803 0.0323 0.0003 - 0.1197 0.0040 0.0002 +1.2137 +0.8451 Standard error 0.0014 0.0028 0.0001 - 0.0014 0.0003 0.0002 0.0052 0.0110
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1056795567 and quasi-random dice
Player 0:
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Player 1:
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

The score (after 0 games) is: White 4, Blue 0 (match to 9 points)

Move number 21: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	47
Blue	81
Position ID: 2wsAAJq7OwAAAg Match ID: UgkgAUAAAAAA

• Blue doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.0297)! [bad]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		-0.6576	(Money: -0.7261)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	-0.4377
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+1.4377
3.	Double, take	-0.4673	-0.0297
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (2.0%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 4-cube 0.1785 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.8215 0.0812 0.0020 -0.6576 -0.4377 Standard error 0.0003 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0003 0.0021 0.0005 0.0008 0.0014 Player White owns 8-cube 0.1808 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.8192 0.3581 0.0026 -0.4673 -0.4673 Standard error 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0005 0.0091 0.0005 0.0023 0.0023
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1056795567 and quasi-random dice
Player 0:
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Player 1:
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Again, ignore the White checker on the bar.

Not too much of a difference here. Cashing the first position turns out to be somehow clearer, I'm not sure how that can be. But the results are basically the same as 2-ply vs. 2-ply with JT100 tables.

One of the reasons I did these rollouts is because it occurred to me that 2-ply played this quite a bit better than 0-ply, slotting the 2-point at the first chance it got. My opponent (and 0-ply) did not slot the 2-point, although I don't remember if he had an opportunity to do so, but with 32 numbers on 2 rolls, it seems pretty likely.

Final three rollouts, with JT100 tables and 2-ply vs. 0-ply with 0.015 noise:

The score (after 0 games) is: White 4, Blue 0 (match to 9 points)

Move number 8: White to play 32

White	88
Blue	81
Position ID: c3cHAEDbdgNAEA Match ID: AYEpAUAAAAAA

• White doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.8906	(Money: +0.9008)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.3994	+0.3994
3.	No double	+0.9930	-0.0070
Proper cube action:		Redouble, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player White owns 2-cube 0.9368 0.0292 0.0004 - 0.0632 0.0024 0.0000 +0.8906 +0.9930 Standard error 0.0010 0.0006 0.0001 - 0.0010 0.0001 0.0000 0.0022 0.0033 Player Blue owns 4-cube 0.9543 0.0213 0.0005 - 0.0457 0.0001 0.0000 +1.5251 +1.3994 Standard error 0.0019 0.0015 0.0001 - 0.0019 0.0004 0.0000 0.0084 0.0130
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1056071671 and quasi-random dice
Player 0:
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Player 1:
Play: 0-ply cubeful, noise 0.015 (d) [advanced]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful, noise 0.015 (d) [advanced]

The score (after 0 games) is: White 4, Blue 0 (match to 9 points)

Move number 17: White on roll, cube decision?

White	76
Blue	81
Position ID: c3cHAEDbdgcAEA Match ID: AQEgAUAAAAAA

• White doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.7697	(Money: +0.7782)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.9563
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.0437
3.	No double	+0.8427	-0.1136
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player White owns 2-cube 0.8776 0.0249 0.0002 - 0.1224 0.0021 0.0000 +0.7697 +0.8427 Standard error 0.0018 0.0006 0.0000 - 0.0018 0.0004 0.0002 0.0039 0.0050 Player Blue owns 4-cube 0.8953 0.0218 0.0006 - 0.1047 0.0013 0.0003 +1.2807 +0.9563 Standard error 0.0023 0.0021 0.0004 - 0.0023 0.0005 0.0003 0.0099 0.0173
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1056071671 and quasi-random dice
Player 0:
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Player 1:
Play: 0-ply cubeful, noise 0.015 (d) [advanced]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful, noise 0.015 (d) [advanced]

The score (after 0 games) is: White 4, Blue 0 (match to 9 points)

Move number 22: Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	22
Blue	81
Position ID: 2wsAAMzdHQAAAQ Match ID: UgkgAUAAAAAA

• Blue doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.1099)! [doubtful]

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		-0.6992	(Money: -0.7644)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	-0.4391
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+1.4391
3.	Double, take	-0.5490	-0.1099
Proper cube action:		No redouble, take (7.1%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 4-cube 0.1582 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.8418 0.0777 0.0031 -0.6992 -0.4391 Standard error 0.0017 0.0471 0.0018 - 0.0017 0.0021 0.0008 0.0037 0.0052 Player White owns 8-cube 0.1623 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.8377 0.3492 0.0038 -0.5490 -0.5490 Standard error 0.0017 0.0979 0.0039 - 0.0017 0.0090 0.0008 0.0076 0.0076
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1056071671 and quasi-random dice
Player 0:
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Player 1:
Play: 0-ply cubeful, noise 0.015 (d) [advanced]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful, noise 0.015 (d) [advanced]

And now we're back to the status quo of g11, with the exception of White's take after 33, which is barely correct instead of a huge blunder.

Considering I only used the JT100 tables here, if I had used JT200, it's likely that the effects would have been much more pronounced. Cashing would likely be clear, I'm not sure that I would even have a double after rolling 33, and White's recube on the come is likely to be a tossup at worst.

But I'd guess that if presented with the normal MET and asked: how do you think these numbers would change for a +200 ELO advantage, there'd be a wide tendency to overestimate the effect.

I think this is definitely true on initial doubles, but these results make me very wary of redoubles, particularly where the leader is redoubling. The trailer can just take and whip it back to 8 on literally any excuse. Although the modern tendency is to pressure weaker opponents with the cube rather than "grind" it out and make errors yourself, I think the leader should be really alert when there's even the hint of an 8 cube in a match, particularly when he can't use all 8 points.

Messages In This Thread

• Position from Madison 2007
  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 9:54 p.m.
  • Position from Madison 2007
    Stick -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 10:40 p.m.
    • Position from Madison 2007
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 10:57 p.m.
      • Position from Madison 2007
        Stick -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 11:07 p.m.
  • Position from Madison 2007
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 13 March 2008, at 11:51 p.m.
  • Position from Madison 2007
    Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 14 March 2008, at 2:09 a.m.
  • Position from Madison 2007
    Keene -- Friday, 14 March 2008, at 5:58 a.m.
  • Preliminary Rollouts
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 14 March 2008, at 5:23 p.m.
    • Preliminary Rollouts
      Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 14 March 2008, at 5:50 p.m.
  • ROLLOUTS: Nine more
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 17 March 2008, at 1:23 a.m.