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OLM Tues. March 18th - Cube

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 18 March 2008, at 5:34 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Tues. March 18th - Cube (Stick)

(Is this a Woolsey Doubling Rule situation?)

At first glance it looks like we hit 24/36. But what about 6-3, 6-5, and even 5-1? Are we hitting loose with all of those?

BoE (usually don't do that in the OLM's, but I need MEQ practice), I get that Stick needs somewhere in the 26%-27% cubeless game winning chances (cgwc) to take this whereas at $-ply I calculate ~30% cgwc takepoint. So the matchscore does matter.

We have quite a bit of work to do here. We want to close Stick out. We need to get our back checkers around. Obviously if we hit loose he gets a crack (probably multiple cracks) to send us back. If we don't hit he's 30% chance of anchoring and evening the game on each roll.

Does hit+fan (46%) really lose our market by a considerable amount? At that point we'll be about 60-40 favorite to close the prime before he hits us back since we only have one potential cover for the next roll or two. I don't think that scenario is a significant market loss.

I'm holding onto the 2-cube. Won't be surprised if I'm blowing this because that tends to be what happens to me in these situations which are in unfamiliar territory for me (and I instinctively take the conservative route).

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