I played 21/11 8/3(2), which is probably the DMP and money play, and was startled to see how bad XG thought it was. XG's top two plays both involve leaving a blot on the 11pt, and its top choice of 13/3(2) was not even mentioned by any respondents.
Any ex post facto justifications?
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 4
pip: 148 | | 7 point match | pip: 158
score: 3
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-----BD-Ba-AfD---c-e-A--A-:0:0:1:55:3:4:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 55 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/3(2) | eq: +0.394 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.84% (G:16.93% B:0.67%)
47.16% (G:6.71% B:0.56%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.383...+0.406) - [99.8%]
Duration: 36 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/3(2) 6/1(2) | eq: +0.370 (-0.024) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.05% (G:16.53% B:0.29%)
47.95% (G:6.27% B:0.50%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.359...+0.382) - [0.2%]
Duration: 35 minutes 26 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/3 11/6 8/3 | eq: +0.361 (-0.034) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.31% (G:15.62% B:0.47%)
46.69% (G:6.11% B:0.52%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.350...+0.371) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 14 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 13/8 11/1 6/1 | eq: +0.323 (-0.071) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.59% (G:14.98% B:0.29%)
47.41% (G:6.52% B:0.49%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.308...+0.339) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 45 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout2 | 21/11 8/3(2) | eq: +0.279 (-0.115) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.84% (G:10.43% B:0.40%)
45.16% (G:4.19% B:0.19%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.265...+0.293) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 41 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Money game:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 148 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 158
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-----BD-Ba-AfD---c-e-A--A-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 55 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 21/11 8/3(2) | eq: +0.197 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.90% (G:10.23% B:0.17%)
45.10% (G:4.03% B:0.12%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.186...+0.207) - [85.6%]
Duration: 27 minutes 47 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/3 11/6 8/3 | eq: +0.188 (-0.009) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.49% (G:15.35% B:0.28%)
46.51% (G:5.79% B:0.23%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.176...+0.200) - [13.9%]
Duration: 21 minutes 28 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/3(2) | eq: +0.177 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.02% (G:16.41% B:0.30%)
46.98% (G:6.24% B:0.30%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.164...+0.189) - [0.4%]
Duration: 21 minutes 16 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 13/8 11/1 6/1 | eq: +0.163 (-0.033) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.70% (G:14.65% B:0.18%)
47.30% (G:5.84% B:0.22%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.152...+0.174) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 40 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 8/3(2) 6/1(2) | eq: +0.144 (-0.053) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.94% (G:16.38% B:0.19%)
48.06% (G:6.12% B:0.25%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.131...+0.157) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 49 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release