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BGonline.org Forums
Why is hitting so bad here?
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Why is hitting so bad here? (channingW)
Date: Saturday, 28 March 2015, at 9:25 p.m.
8 checkers off with one closed out vs. a closed board with perfect distribution wins (cubelessly) about 50% of the time. 9 off changes this to around 58%. Hitting leaves 26 hits while 1-off leaves 27 so hitting wins one extra gammon in 36 games and slightly improves the bg chances. Assuming White always closes her board and starts the bearoff with spares on 6-5-4 (a real stretch of course), hitting gives her 13 wins in 36 games vs. 11.34 if Blue plays 1-off. Plus Blue owns the cube so the cubeful numbers will show an even larger difference.
Cube ownership usually increases that sides winning chances by around 18% so Blue wins 18.8 of the 27 times he's hit after 1-off vs. ~15.3 of the 26 after hitting. It's really much better than this for Blue because these numbers assume that his hit checker always gets closed out and White ends up with perfect distribution! Do the math and you'll see that taking the extra man off gains about 0.2 points/game. No way the slightly increased bg chances will make up for this large difference.
So take the extra checker off. That is better on the 26/36 where White hits after either play; it's a lot worse on 1/36; and both plays are virtually the same in the remaining 9.
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