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Rollout: I'm still puzzled

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 29 March 2015, at 5:09 p.m.

In Response To: Just another random backgammon position (Timothy Chow)

OTB, I played 22/16* 17/15. I posted this position mostly to elicit some thoughts about the difference between 16/14 and 17/15. Perhaps the equity difference of the rollout below isn't enough to bother about but folks here seem to stress out over much smaller equity differences. My best theory at the moment is that leaving a checker on the 17pt provides better connectivity with Blue's rearmost checker, which is vulnerable to attack. But it's not obvious to me how to test this theory.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 153
Unlimited Game
pip: 155
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--b-b-EBC----B--aAbdbbB---:1:1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 62

1.Rollout122/16* 16/14eq: +0.374
Player:
Opponent:		56.68% (G:14.93% B:0.76%)
43.32% (G:15.30% B:0.68%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.365...+0.383) - [100.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 46 seconds
2.Rollout122/16* 17/15eq: +0.338 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:		55.58% (G:15.44% B:0.79%)
44.42% (G:16.47% B:0.82%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.329...+0.348) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 14 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

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