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about those doubles

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 30 April 2015, at 5:17 p.m.

In Response To: about those doubles (Phil Simborg)

Last week I got a phone call from someone who wanted to prove to me that if you only count the number of doubles each player rolls you can determine who will win the match and who was luckier.

...(And later:)

All a bunch of crap.

I did leave out some text, but I'm assuming the "bunch of crap" was meant to include the above claim. My gut tells me that your phone correspondent is correct, as long as he's not claiming a 100% correlation. But I wouldn't be surprised with something on the order of 90%.

Suppose pre-bot someone had told you that in a regional/national Open event, the luckier player won 95% of matches. What would you have said then? But isn't that (ballpark) what the bots tell us today?

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