BGonline.org Forums

some thoughts on rollouts

Posted By: christian munk-christensen
Date: Monday, 11 May 2015, at 9:06 p.m.

In Response To: some thoughts on rollouts (Stick)

Let me shock you a bit more: I use the old Wolsey MET for equities where the leader needs 1 or 2. For other equities I use Neill's numbers. The problem is, I only remember the leader equities in matches up to 7 points.

I know there are more accurate METs out there but I never bothered to learn those. The main reason is that in most cases I am not able to accurately pinpoint my equity in the given position anyway. So who gives a fuck if my TP is off by a % if my estimate of the average position is off by perhaps 5%. (off course there are a few position types where I am able to get a little closer to the actual eq, typically if the only equity is shot related)

In the recent Dk vs World, Sander and I played consultation against Mochy and Michi and we actually ended up in a situation with an 8-cube in a late bearoff. Sander didn't know the equities so we had to go with my estimate based on my extrapolation of the numbers from the "7-table". Eventually, I worked out we needed to take which turned out to be correct but it wasn't with great confidence because it was based on an extrapolated value. In the end Sander and I played 0,8 vs Mochy and Michi's 2,x over the 4 games long 9-pointer. I am sure both Mochy and Michi knew the correct cube action for that 8-cube.

So many of these technical things are forgotten when you lose motivation to study the game. If you were to layoff for 3 years, then I reckon you might forget some stuff too. And after I have come back I just find my motivation to be insufficient to really study these "boring" aspects.

Tchnically I am a much worse player than I was 3 years ago but it doesn't really show in my PRs.

Messages In This Thread

• Prime-versus-Prime, Challenge #4
  Nack Ballard -- Friday, 24 April 2015, at 5:32 a.m.
  • Prime-versus-Prime, Challenge #4
    christian munk-christensen -- Friday, 24 April 2015, at 6:14 a.m.
    • Prime-versus-Prime, Challenge #4
      Karl Frogner -- Sunday, 26 April 2015, at 12:48 p.m.
  • Prime-versus-Prime, Challenge #4
    ChanningW -- Friday, 24 April 2015, at 9:16 a.m.
  • Prime-versus-Prime, Challenge #4
    ah_clem -- Friday, 24 April 2015, at 12:25 p.m.
  • Prime-versus-Prime, Challenge #4
    Sean Garber -- Saturday, 25 April 2015, at 1:05 a.m.
  • Prime-versus-Prime, Challenge #4
    Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 25 April 2015, at 8:26 a.m.
  • Prime-versus-Prime, FOUR SCORE Rollouts
    Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 10 May 2015, at 7:07 a.m.
    • Prime-versus-Prime, FOUR SCORE Rollouts
      Stick -- Sunday, 10 May 2015, at 7:41 a.m.
      • Prime-versus-Prime, FOUR SCORE Rollouts
        Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 10 May 2015, at 10:27 p.m.
        • some thoughts on rollouts
          christian munk-christensen -- Monday, 11 May 2015, at 7:49 p.m.
          • some thoughts on rollouts
            Stick -- Monday, 11 May 2015, at 8:18 p.m.
            • some thoughts on rollouts
              christian munk-christensen -- Monday, 11 May 2015, at 9:06 p.m.
              • some thoughts on rollouts
                Stick -- Monday, 11 May 2015, at 9:35 p.m.
                • some thoughts on rollouts
                  christian munk-christensen -- Tuesday, 12 May 2015, at 8:42 a.m.
          • some thoughts on rollouts/when they are important
            Phil Simborg -- Tuesday, 12 May 2015, at 1:17 a.m.
    • Prime-versus-Prime, FOUR SCORE Rollouts
      Casper Van der Tak -- Sunday, 10 May 2015, at 8:05 p.m.
    • Prime-versus-Prime, FOUR SCORE Rollouts
      Joe Russell -- Monday, 11 May 2015, at 2:20 a.m.