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What about conditional probability?

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 25 March 2008, at 4:15 p.m.

In Response To: Why is DMP play so important? (bob koca)

Suppose you are playing a series of 1 pointers and the first one to 11 wins wins the match. Both players played perfectly except for 2 mistakes by player A. One happened in the first game and was so severe that it turned a sure win into a sure loss. The other error happened in the last game at the score 10 to 10 and was equally severe. When the errors occurred the first cost 17.6% match winning chance and the second one cost 100% match winning chance. The errors are obviously equally to blame for losing the match though.

If after blowing the first game, the chances of actually reaching 10-10/11 here is smaller than 17.6%, wouldn't it be better to have won the first game?

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