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What about conditional probability?

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 25 March 2008, at 5:42 p.m.

In Response To: What about conditional probability? (bob koca)

1) (This is how I originally calculated the .176) After losing the first match your equity is P(X >= 11) where X is binomial with 20 trials and .5 success probability. The equity lost is twice the difference of .5 and that amount. This gives 2(.5 - .412) = .176.

That is, the match equity table for these rules (all games worth a single point) has 0.412 as its entry for the -11,-10 score.

Wish it were that easy to extend g11. :)

Messages In This Thread

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    • Why is DMP play so important?
      bob koca -- Tuesday, 25 March 2008, at 3:01 a.m.
      • Why is DMP play so important?
        Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 25 March 2008, at 4:14 a.m.
        • Why is DMP play so important?
          bob koca -- Tuesday, 25 March 2008, at 5:10 a.m.
          • Why is DMP play so important?
            Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 26 March 2008, at 2:35 p.m.
      • Why is DMP play so important?
        Mislav Radica -- Tuesday, 25 March 2008, at 9:44 a.m.
      • What about conditional probability?
        Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 25 March 2008, at 4:15 p.m.
        • What about conditional probability?
          bob koca -- Tuesday, 25 March 2008, at 5:26 p.m.
          • What about conditional probability?
            Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 25 March 2008, at 5:42 p.m.
  • My thoughts...both of them
    Stick -- Tuesday, 25 March 2008, at 9:51 a.m.
    • My thoughts...both of them
      Mislav Radica -- Tuesday, 25 March 2008, at 11:48 a.m.