OTB I thought the hit must be bad, because we will have hard time covering the blot, and any hit will put us in gammon danger, which is fatal AtS. So I chose a safe play - 13/4. Never even thought about slotting our bar point, because of fatal danger of gammons if opp rolls a 6, which in my eyes greatly overweighed the chance to cover the bar with 1s if we are missed. Even if we do, we'd still have real risk to crunch before we escape opp's prime.
How do You approach risk vs. reward estimation when deciding between plays like 11/2, 13/4 and 13/8 11/7 ?
1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 11/7 | eq: +0,036 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58,61% (G:7,71% B:0,42%)
41,39% (G:13,49% B:1,98%) | Conf.: ± 0,003 (+0,033...+0,039) - [100,0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 53 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 11/2 | eq: -0,002 (-0,038) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 56,36% (G:7,39% B:0,48%)
43,64% (G:8,37% B:0,43%) | Conf.: ± 0,003 (-0,005...+0,001) - [0,0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 40 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/4 | eq: -0,030 (-0,066) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55,37% (G:7,04% B:0,45%)
44,63% (G:8,43% B:0,74%) | Conf.: ± 0,003 (-0,033...-0,027) - [0,0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 58 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 11/7 6/1* | eq: -0,107 (-0,143) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 55,40% (G:6,90% B:0,39%)
44,60% (G:19,45% B:6,09%) | Conf.: ± 0,006 (-0,112...-0,101) - [0,0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 46 seconds |
|
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1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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