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Pineapple Bluff Gammon--exciting cube action

Posted By: Joe Russell
Date: Thursday, 2 July 2015, at 12:12 p.m.

In Response To: Pineapple Bluff Gammon--exciting cube action (Bob Koca)

I would 1st estimate the chances based on a 0% possibility of a bluff and if that got me close to a take, I would take. If it did not, I would use whatever knowledge I had of the player to determine what % of the time they may be bluffing.

Estimating the wins is not that hard in this position. 5/9 of the time a 3-6 has been rolled and 4/9 of the time a 3-5 has been rolled, if there is no bluff. You don't win too many races down 24 pips and 4 crossovers after a 3-6. Since each triplet occur only 1/216 and because you will likely need 5-5-5 or 6-6-6 to have a good chance, I doubt you win more than a few percent, after a 3-6. The 3-5 is more interesting. You do hit back 42%, but he comes in and out 25% of the time. If you win 36/42 of the time you hit that would give you .36* 4/9 or 16%. Obviously, it is a pass, unless you think your opponent could be bluffing nearly 10% of the time. since you can't win many races after 3-6.

Messages In This Thread

• Pineapple Bluff Gammon--exciting cube action
  phil simborg -- Wednesday, 1 July 2015, at 9:45 p.m.
  • Pineapple Bluff Gammon--exciting cube action
    Bob Koca -- Thursday, 2 July 2015, at 1:09 a.m.
    • Pineapple Bluff Gammon--exciting cube action
      phil simborg -- Thursday, 2 July 2015, at 1:17 a.m.
      • Pineapple Bluff Gammon--exciting cube action
        Joe Russell -- Thursday, 2 July 2015, at 2:13 a.m.
        • Pineapple Bluff Gammon--exciting cube action
          Bob Koca -- Thursday, 2 July 2015, at 2:42 a.m.
          • Pineapple Bluff Gammon--exciting cube action
            Joe Russell -- Thursday, 2 July 2015, at 12:20 p.m.
      • Pineapple Bluff Gammon--exciting cube action
        Bob Koca -- Thursday, 2 July 2015, at 2:24 a.m.
      • Pineapple Bluff Gammon--exciting cube action
        Bob Koca -- Thursday, 2 July 2015, at 2:29 a.m.
        • Pineapple Bluff Gammon--exciting cube action
          phil simborg -- Thursday, 2 July 2015, at 2:49 a.m.
          • Pineapple Bluff Gammon--exciting cube action
            Bob Koca -- Thursday, 2 July 2015, at 2:59 a.m.
    • Pineapple Bluff Gammon--exciting cube action
      Joe Russell -- Thursday, 2 July 2015, at 12:12 p.m.
  • Pineapple Bluff Gammon--exciting cube action
    Joe Russell -- Thursday, 2 July 2015, at 2:15 a.m.