BGonline.org Forums

Rollout ATS and for money

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 2 September 2015, at 1:45 a.m.

In Response To: Too dangerous to hit? (Timothy Chow)

The DMP play is 13/4* but the rollout below says that it loses too many gammons ATS. Kudos to CMC for finding 13/9 13/8, which still leaves a direct shot but keeps the blot count (and therefore the gammon losses) down without sacrificing structure by dumping 6/1 or 6/2.

		White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 111 7 point match pip: 139 score: 5 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BB-a-E-A---bB---bbcba-Cb-:1:1:1:54:5:2:0:7:10
Blue to play 54

1.	Rollout1	13/9 13/8	eq: -1.051
	Player: Opponent: 14.92% (G:2.30% B:0.05%) 85.08% (G:24.17% B:0.97%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.056...-1.047) - [100.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 53 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/3 6/2	eq: -1.090 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 13.78% (G:3.04% B:0.10%) 86.22% (G:25.26% B:1.03%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-1.095...-1.085) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 31 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/4*	eq: -1.096 (-0.045)
	Player: Opponent: 19.82% (G:5.74% B:0.12%) 80.18% (G:33.01% B:2.22%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-1.102...-1.089) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 56 seconds
4.	Rollout1	8/4* 6/1	eq: -1.106 (-0.054)
	Player: Opponent: 17.26% (G:4.63% B:0.09%) 82.74% (G:30.90% B:1.47%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-1.112...-1.099) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 56 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---

Unlimited:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 111 Unlimited Game pip: 139 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BB-a-E-A---bB---bbcba-Cb-:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 54

1.	Rollout1	13/4*	eq: -0.829
	Player: Opponent: 19.99% (G:5.50% B:0.09%) 80.01% (G:33.38% B:2.38%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.837...-0.820) - [100.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 18 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/9 13/8	eq: -0.868 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 15.47% (G:2.09% B:0.03%) 84.53% (G:24.73% B:1.02%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.874...-0.862) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 09 seconds
3.	Rollout1	8/4* 6/1	eq: -0.870 (-0.041)
	Player: Opponent: 17.75% (G:4.04% B:0.07%) 82.25% (G:31.43% B:1.75%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.877...-0.863) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 08 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

Messages In This Thread

• Too dangerous to hit?
  Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 1 September 2015, at 12:14 a.m.
  • Too dangerous to hit?
    Chase -- Tuesday, 1 September 2015, at 12:34 a.m.
    • Too dangerous to hit?
      Stick -- Tuesday, 1 September 2015, at 2:11 a.m.
  • Too dangerous to hit?
    christian munk-christensen -- Tuesday, 1 September 2015, at 6:39 a.m.
  • Rollout ATS and for money
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 2 September 2015, at 1:45 a.m.