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Run or build? - XGR++ plus VARIANTS - insight needed

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Tuesday, 8 September 2015, at 10:17 p.m.

In Response To: Run or build? (Karol Szczerek)

Actual position that I've came across during an EBIF match was variant C below. I played a quick 24/18 13/11 without much thought. That way I've found quite a big hole to plug in my game, as it was a hammer-in-the-head 0.200 whooper. Even more fun is the fact, that in none of the "close" variants I've examined (shifting opp's 3 homeboard points around plus playing with spares in his homeboard/outfield) 24/18 13/11 was the best or even 2nd best play.

I now completely understand variant C, but found two variants that puzzled me wildly. One is the originally posted position, where running is a big blunder. Second one is variant A below, which differs by only 1 pip (opp's spare moved from 4pt. to 5pt.), and is a slightly correct run. That gives a over 0.100 swing for the seemingly insignificant 1 pip difference.

I'd appreciate any insight for these two. I'd imagine it's quite hard to see the subtle difference OTB, as I'd just look at both positions pretty much the same, not even considering counting group of rolls or see how they play. I'd just judge them by general principles such as bold vs. safe criteria, overall efficiency, timing, robustness, flexibility, connectivity of the position.

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Original problem
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
13 point match
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--B-D-C--AbC---c-cbc--B-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:13:10
Blue to play 62

1.xgXG Roller++13/5eq: -0,542
Player:
Opponent:		38,47% (G:10,20% B:0,44%)
61,53% (G:24,64% B:2,54%)
2.XG Roller++24/16eq: -0,641 (-0,098)
Player:
Opponent:		38,53% (G:9,83% B:0,59%)
61,47% (G:31,57% B:1,38%)
3.XG Roller++24/18 13/11eq: -0,680 (-0,138)
Player:
Opponent:		38,14% (G:10,15% B:0,62%)
61,86% (G:32,87% B:1,06%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

 Variant A
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 139
13 point match
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--B-D-C--AbC---c-ccb--B-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:13:10
Blue to play 62

1.xgXG Roller++24/16eq: -0,585
Player:
Opponent:		39,07% (G:9,60% B:0,52%)
60,93% (G:29,76% B:1,28%)
2.XG Roller++13/5eq: -0,594 (-0,010)
Player:
Opponent:		37,02% (G:10,18% B:0,41%)
62,98% (G:24,93% B:2,52%)
3.XG Roller++24/18 13/11eq: -0,654 (-0,069)
Player:
Opponent:		38,61% (G:10,22% B:0,62%)
61,39% (G:32,76% B:1,10%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Here are dice distributions for above problems:

Original - run Original - slot Var. A - run Var. A - slot

.

Original vs. Var. A - runs Original vs. Var. A - slots
Variant B
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 137
13 point match
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--B-D-C--AbC---c-cc-b-B-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:13:10
Blue to play 62

1.xgXG Roller++13/5eq: -0,429
Player:
Opponent:		41,26% (G:11,75% B:0,49%)
58,74% (G:23,53% B:2,59%)
2.XG Roller++24/16eq: -0,451 (-0,022)
Player:
Opponent:		42,01% (G:10,70% B:0,63%)
57,99% (G:28,88% B:1,25%)
3.XG Roller++24/18 13/11eq: -0,490 (-0,061)
Player:
Opponent:		41,70% (G:11,14% B:0,73%)
58,30% (G:30,93% B:0,97%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

This variant is created from variant A by shifting opp's 4pt. to 3pt.. His priming structure is hurt, which suggest postponing the risk of exposing ourselves to blitz with a running play. A shift of 0.032 in equity difference between run and slot.

Variant C
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 133
13 point match
pip: 154
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b--B-D-C--AbC---c-c-bc-B-:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:13:10
Blue to play 62

1.xgXG Roller++13/5eq: -0,167
Player:
Opponent:		47,82% (G:13,79% B:0,59%)
52,18% (G:20,43% B:2,27%)
2.XG Roller++24/16eq: -0,373 (-0,206)
Player:
Opponent:		44,23% (G:11,62% B:0,71%)
55,77% (G:28,50% B:1,12%)
3.XG Roller++24/18 13/11eq: -0,387 (-0,220)
Player:
Opponent:		44,27% (G:12,10% B:0,79%)
55,73% (G:29,83% B:0,92%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Going further down the same road, opp's position looks more blitzy and much less primy than in variant B. He would welcome our exposure with a run. Slot is correct by a mile.

This is the position where I blundered with 24/18 13/11.

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