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Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 5 October 2015, at 2:56 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Stick)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 167
Unlimited Game
pip: 126
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bBB-CbB---bF---c-ea-----:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Original Position


1.Rollout113/9eq: +0.335
Player:
Opponent:		67.54% (G:15.46% B:0.83%)
32.46% (G:5.97% B:0.18%)		Conf.: � 0.008 (+0.327...+0.343) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 02 seconds
2.Rollout113/10 6/5eq: +0.312 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		66.40% (G:17.31% B:0.81%)
33.60% (G:6.84% B:0.19%)		Conf.: � 0.009 (+0.303...+0.321) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 17 seconds
3.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: +0.290 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:		65.68% (G:17.11% B:0.75%)
34.32% (G:7.10% B:0.20%)		Conf.: � 0.009 (+0.281...+0.299) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 40 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Tim's rollout of his original position is above.

Stick: This [moving a Blue 13pt spare to his 6pt] seems like the most obvious variant.

I agree, and in fact rolled it out yesterday -- see below. D (Down, 13/9) is out of contention, but making the 5pt does not become the dominant play as some might have thought.

I've included an additional variant below that, where Blue's 6pt still has only one spare, yet 13/9 drops into a dead heat.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 167
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 119
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bBB-DbB---bE---c-ea-----:1:-1:1:31:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 1


1.Rollout113/10 6/5eq: +0.414
Player:
Opponent:		69.64% (G:18.40% B:0.83%)
30.36% (G:5.26% B:0.19%)		Conf.: กำ 0.003 (+0.411...+0.418) - [81.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 28 minutes
2.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: +0.412 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		69.35% (G:18.39% B:0.78%)
30.65% (G:4.85% B:0.17%)		Conf.: กำ 0.003 (+0.409...+0.415) - [19.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 05 minutes
3.Rollout213/9eq: +0.361 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:		67.80% (G:17.14% B:0.84%)
32.20% (G:5.35% B:0.19%)		Conf.: กำ 0.008 (+0.352...+0.369) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 28 seconds
 
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 179
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 126
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bBB-CcB---bF---c-da-----:1:-1:1:31:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 2


1.Rollout113/10 6/5eq: +0.279
Player:
Opponent:		64.45% (G:19.20% B:0.97%)
35.55% (G:6.94% B:0.25%)		Conf.: กำ 0.003 (+0.276...+0.282) - [54.3%]
Duration: 8 hours 04 minutes
2.Rollout113/9eq: +0.279 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:		64.44% (G:18.53% B:0.93%)
35.56% (G:6.53% B:0.23%)		Conf.: กำ 0.003 (+0.276...+0.282) - [45.7%]
Duration: 8 hours 01 minute
3.Rollout28/5 6/5eq: +0.267 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		64.17% (G:18.89% B:0.84%)
35.83% (G:7.08% B:0.26%)		Conf.: กำ 0.005 (+0.262...+0.273) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
 
1 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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