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OTB counting approach.

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Saturday, 24 October 2015, at 6:01 p.m.

In Response To: OTB counting approach. (Karol Szczerek)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 124 13 point match pip: 74 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBCCBA-b--b-A----Abbb-ca-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:0:13:10
Blue to play 63

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

What's Your quick counting OTB method for such a problem?

I typically go with something like this:

start from the safe play - 13/7 6/3
- 3 shots now
- after his dances (2/3), most probably avg. 4 shots next roll... 2/3 * 4 = 2.5 shots
- after his 9 enter+miss I judge ca. 3/4 rolls to expose a double direct on avg., so 9 * 3/4 * 1/2 = ca. 3.5 shots
- total 9 shots

18/12 6/3
- 9 shots now
- if he dances, most of the time, say, 3/4 i can't secure, so that's avg. 4 shots from the bar * 3/4 (my unsecures) * 3/4 (cuz 9/36 shots are already counted above) = 2,5 shots
- total 11,5 shots
- i don't gain much gammons for sure, and I give him few more than after "safe", cuz of blots position => certainly nothing to be worth 2,5 more shots here

18/12 13/10
- 11 shots now
- gain some gammons, loose similar amount (3 blots), with my gain probably a bit higher because of higher overall win% => still certainly not worth already 2 shots more => stop counting

Is there a bigger mental shortcut You use? Or maybe another quick count method?

Messages In This Thread

• OTB counting approach.
  Karol Szczerek -- Saturday, 24 October 2015, at 5:52 p.m.
  • OTB counting approach.
    Karol Szczerek -- Saturday, 24 October 2015, at 6:01 p.m.
    • OTB counting approach.
      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 24 October 2015, at 9:47 p.m.
    • OTB counting approach.
      hominid -- Sunday, 25 October 2015, at 12:49 p.m.