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| XGID=-b----E-C-B-dC---bbe----B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 32 | |||||
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/22 24/21 | eq: -0.0341 | |||
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| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/22 13/10 | eq: -0.0395 (-0.0055) | |||
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| 3. | XG Roller++ | 24/21 13/11 | eq: -0.0784 (-0.0443) | |||
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| 4. | XG Roller++ | 24/21 6/4 | eq: -0.0816 (-0.0476) | |||
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| 1 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 67433306 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||||||
Rollout by Taper_Mike |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| Bot | Seed | Equity | Nacbracs | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR | 67433306 | –34.1 | [U Z5] "<=62 | Taper_Mike |
| XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval | [XGR++ seed] | –34.4 | [U Z4 S44 W47] "&e | Taper_Mike |
| GnuBg 1.04 2-ply Trunc | 795933425 | –39.297 | n[U Z1 S45 w46] '/0.360t | Taper_Mike |
As Neil explains, the front position is balanced nicely. This is a good time to advance the runners, especially since both will see daylight after moving up.
Playing two up tends to freeze the opponent’s 8pt. When he rolls a number that uses a checker from his 8pt to make a new point inside, he will usually be forced to leave one or more direct shots. A roll such as 42, for instance, makes a point on Blue’s head, but still gives Blue a direct 5 to hit with (once he enters). If Blue plays only one checker up, and leaves the other checker back on the 24pt, he won’t have the same retaliatory power after being hit from White’s 8pt.
Splitting is also fine, provided you do not leave extra blots. Reverse split, Z = 24/22 13/10, moves a spare down to the 10pt in complete safety. That play splits with the 2, and is almost as good as playing two up. Splitting with the 3, however, leaves no safe way to play the 2. Thus, S = 24/21 13/11 is only a tad better than slotting and splitting, w = 24/21, 6/4. Both trail the top plays by over 40 millipoints.
Note that playing down from the midpoint does not create a new builder. It simply moves a builder from one point to another. The builder will have decent point-making potential whether you move it or not. As far as making a new point goes, a spare is useful on the 10pt, 11pt, or midpoint. Of the three, however, the only one that leaves a vulnerable blot is a spare on the 11pt. That creates a big swing when White rolls 64, and is another factor in explaining why S fares so poorly.
Mike