| 1. | XG Roller | Bar/20 6/4* | eq: -0.276 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.12% (G:9.77% B:0.33%)
55.88% (G:18.26% B:0.71%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller | Bar/23 13/8 | eq: -0.366 (-0.090) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.74% (G:9.39% B:0.29%)
58.26% (G:17.99% B:0.74%) | |
|
| 3. | 2-ply | Bar/20 13/11 | eq: -0.364 (-0.088) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.77% (G:9.17% B:0.33%)
58.23% (G:18.23% B:0.67%) | |
|
| 4. | 2-ply | Bar/18 | eq: -0.380 (-0.104) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.30% (G:8.66% B:0.31%)
58.70% (G:17.68% B:0.66%) | |
|
| 5. | 2-ply | Bar/20 8/6 | eq: -0.454 (-0.178) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.94% (G:8.27% B:0.28%)
60.06% (G:19.38% B:0.71%) | |
|
IMO, this position is not a "backgame." A big reason for Blue hitting on his 4pt is to reduce the chances of White covering her own 4pt. If we remove White's slotted checker from the equation (so that Blue's bar/21* return-return is not a key element), it becomes clearer that there is not only an upside but also a downside in hitting 6/4* (and therefore the number of return shots is relevant). Blue's second 6pt spare is better off where it is rather than being hit and sent back.
Above is the XGR++ evaluation (copied from Svilo's post) of the original position.
Below, Variant 1 is a cusp (White's 4pt checker is back on the 22pt).
In Variant 2, a second change has been made (White 6pt spare to 13pt), and Blue's 6/4* move quickly goes south.
Nack
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 13/8 | eq: -0.233 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.70% (G:11.19% B:0.43%)
55.30% (G:14.49% B:1.25%) | Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.240...-0.227) - [50.3%]
Duration: 10 hours 11 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 6/4* | eq: -0.233 (0.000) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.43% (G:10.98% B:0.48%)
54.57% (G:16.81% B:1.55%) | Conf.: กำ 0.008 (-0.241...-0.225) - [49.7%]
Duration: 12 hours 35 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | Bar/18 | eq: -0.264 (-0.030) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.47% (G:10.60% B:0.44%)
55.53% (G:15.30% B:1.38%) | Conf.: กำ 0.010 (-0.273...-0.254) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 35 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout3 | Bar/20 13/11 | eq: -0.282 (-0.048) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.25% (G:11.09% B:0.45%)
55.75% (G:16.89% B:1.37%) | Conf.: กำ 0.015 (-0.297...-0.266) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 03 minutes |
|
| 5. | Rollout4 | Bar/20 22/20 | eq: -0.322 (-0.089) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.11% (G:9.85% B:0.45%)
56.89% (G:14.91% B:1.10%) | Conf.: กำ 0.018 (-0.340...-0.304) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 21 minutes |
|
| |
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
3 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
4 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 65876923
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 13/8 | eq: -0.236 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.39% (G:10.95% B:0.38%)
55.61% (G:13.41% B:1.04%) | Conf.: กำ 0.009 (-0.245...-0.226) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 15 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/18 | eq: -0.263 (-0.027) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.09% (G:10.35% B:0.38%)
55.91% (G:13.90% B:1.23%) | Conf.: กำ 0.010 (-0.273...-0.253) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 hours 16 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 6/4* | eq: -0.270 (-0.035) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.26% (G:10.26% B:0.50%)
55.74% (G:16.08% B:1.53%) | Conf.: กำ 0.011 (-0.281...-0.259) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 53 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 22/20 | eq: -0.281 (-0.046) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.62% (G:9.65% B:0.33%)
56.38% (G:13.25% B:1.00%) | Conf.: กำ 0.009 (-0.291...-0.272) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 11 minutes |
|
| 5. | Rollout2 | Bar/20 13/11 | eq: -0.335 (-0.099) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.80% (G:10.33% B:0.44%)
57.20% (G:15.39% B:1.60%) | Conf.: กำ 0.021 (-0.356...-0.314) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 46 minutes |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
