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BGonline.org Forums
After opening roll 1a2aPC, when to drop?--one step further
Posted By: Phil Simborg In Response To: After opening roll 1a2aPC, when to drop?--one step further (Bob Koca)
Date: Wednesday, 23 December 2015, at 8:55 p.m.
Once again you spoil my very excellent argument with logic. What you say makes sense...didn't think of that.
Now, the question is, as is often the case, when you think about the jokers you can come up with strong reasons to do or not do something, but you also have to consider, of course, that the majority of time the jokers do not happen. If you take away the jokers both ways, and you look at what happens most of the time (most common variations), then it might be right to ignore the jokers. However, if the difference without the jokers is small, then the jokers become the driving force in the decision.
A simpler example is in a containment game where you could block your opponent's only winning roll, a 6-6, but if you don't block it you are far better off the other 35 rolls. Well, there are times that you are not that much better off and you should block the joker, and other times when it is wrong.
Making these calculations are far beyond my skill set, especially in the situation we are discussing. But it is possible for me, with the help of the dice distribution feature, to come fairly close. But again, even there, how do you factor in the skill-factor difference between opponents and determine which roles truly do lead to more complicated games?
I believe most of this is nearly impossible to quanfity, even with the help of XG, so sometimes you do have to make a judgement call based on your experience and instincts. The problem is, smart people like you are always looking for proof, and here, I simply am not able to quantify the differences.
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