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BGonline.org Forums
OLM Thurs. April 10th
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: OLM Thurs. April 10th (Stick)
Date: Thursday, 10 April 2008, at 5:13 p.m.
We want to be a pest on Stick's side of the board. Thus entering and staying on the 23-point looks inferior to 25/20. Then we can move up to his 18-point or play 13/11. The latter (as discussed by some yesterday, because of the already made 5-point) isn't the world's greatest builder so I think we should first decide if we'd rather be on the 20-point or the 18-point. Only if that decision is very close do we need to bring in the value of 13/11.
Since it will be Stick's turn, we first should ask how good/bad it will be to get pointed upon or hit loose on the two points. If we get hit loose on either point we should get several returns. If we get pointed upon, we'd much rather have that happen on the 18-point because the combination of his making the 20-point and us being on the bar could be fatal (as in we get cubed out).
If we're left alone, the 20-point has the bonus of being a point we'd like to make in conjunction with the 21-point. Holding the 21- and 18-points simultaneously is not nearly so threatening (and probably a liability). If we're going to run off the newly slotted point then I think the 18-point is slightly better, being closer to our homeside.
So far it sounds like a close decision. 13/11 is a slight plus but less so than yesterday because we have fewer builders (e.g. stripped middie) that it can be paired with.
My gut is to play 20/18 but the above logic may favor 13/11 (mainly because of the value of our making the 5-point). If Stick makes that point we aren't in very good shape even if not riding the pine.
I'll go with shaky logic over shaky intuition this time: 25/20, 13/11.
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