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Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 6 January 2016, at 4:46 a.m.

In Response To: Help with XG Rollout of Advanced BG #56 (Albert Steg)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 115
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBBB-----aC----Bcbbbcb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

Original Position


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.78% (G:2.79% B:0.04%) 64.64% (G:3.04% B:0.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.22% (G:2.97% B:0.06%) 35.36% (G:2.82% B:0.05%)
Cubeless Equities +0.274 +0.590
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.336�0.003 (+0.333..+0.339)
Double/Take:+0.327 (-0.009)�0.005 (+0.322..+0.333)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.664)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.3%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.8%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 37.6 seconds

Above is Neil's rollout of the original position (Advanced BG #56, thread posted by Albert).

Below are two variants that contrast the original (close) cube decision.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 63
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 113
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBBB----AaB----Bcbbbcb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 1
Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted by 13/11


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 64.58% (G:2.75% B:0.04%) 65.52% (G:3.11% B:0.07%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 35.42% (G:2.55% B:0.07%) 34.48% (G:2.56% B:0.05%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.293 +0.632
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.338 (-0.035)กำ0.003 (+0.335..+0.341)
Double/Take:+0.372กำ0.007 (+0.366..+0.379)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.628)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 11 seconds
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 61
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 115
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBBB-----aC----Bbbcbcb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10

Variant 2
Compared to the original, White is adjusted by 6/4


Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 63.79% (G:2.89% B:0.04%) 64.80% (G:3.18% B:0.07%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 36.21% (G:3.04% B:0.08%) 35.20% (G:2.90% B:0.04%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.274 +0.598
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.338 (-0.010)กำ0.004 (+0.335..+0.342)
Double/Take:+0.349กำ0.008 (+0.341..+0.356)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.651)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:99.2%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 30 seconds

As you might guess by interpolating between the results of the Original position and Variant 2, if White's back spare is on her 5pt (i.e., halfway between her 6pt and 4pt), Blue's doubling decision is the most borderline (ND by .002, 5k rollout not shown).

Nack

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