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Rollout

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 8 January 2016, at 5:34 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Timothy Chow)

Not good enough to redouble? Funny, my rollout says it's too good to redouble.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 153 7 point match pip: 61 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aECcBB-B-------a-bAbbbb---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	69.49% (G:53.66% B:0.82%)	69.38% (G:55.06% B:9.56%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30.51% (G:4.35% B:0.15%)	30.62% (G:3.64% B:0.15%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.927	+1.772
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+1.005	กำ0.003 (+1.002..+1.008)
Redouble/Take:	+1.423 (+0.419)	กำ0.006 (+1.417..+1.430)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (-0.005)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 1.1%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 65876923 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		99.8%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 42 minutes

Does it ever feel like deja vu all over again? :)

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• Here's a good opportunity to laugh at XG 3-ply
  Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 6 January 2016, at 2:39 a.m.
  • Here's a good opportunity to laugh at XG 3-ply
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Wednesday, 6 January 2016, at 3:54 a.m.
  • Here's a good opportunity to laugh at XG 3-ply
    hominid -- Wednesday, 6 January 2016, at 4:10 p.m.
  • Here's a good opportunity to laugh at XG 3-ply
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 6 January 2016, at 4:59 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 7 January 2016, at 5:17 p.m.
    • Rollout
      Nack Ballard -- Friday, 8 January 2016, at 5:34 a.m.
      • Rollout
        Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 8 January 2016, at 8:05 a.m.
    • Variant (subtitled "how valuable a well-placed spare can be"
      Chuck Bower -- Friday, 8 January 2016, at 4:47 p.m.