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Variant (1 pip different)

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 10 January 2016, at 7:37 a.m.

In Response To: OTB & RO (John O'Hagan)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 65 13 point match pip: 113 score: 8 Blue is Player 1
XGID=----aCCCBBA----A---bb-ddb-:1:1:1:00:8:0:0:13:10
Original Position

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	87.60% (G:5.65% B:0.11%)	88.24% (G:5.62% B:0.24%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	12.40% (G:1.83% B:0.01%)	11.76% (G:1.61% B:0.02%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.773	+1.260
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.909 (-0.010)	�0.002 (+0.907..+0.912)
Redouble/Take:	+0.920	�0.006 (+0.914..+0.926)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.080)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		99.9%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 47 minutes 35 seconds

Above is John's rollout of the original position.

Below is a contrasting variant.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 65 13 point match pip: 114 score: 8 Blue is Player 1
XGID=----aCCCBBA-----A--bb-ddb-:1:1:1:00:8:0:0:13:10
Variant Position Compared to the original, Blue is adjusted 15/16

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	87.57% (G:5.59% B:0.10%)	88.10% (G:5.16% B:0.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	12.43% (G:2.17% B:0.02%)	11.90% (G:1.96% B:0.07%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.768	+1.238
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.907	กำ0.002 (+0.904..+0.909)
Redouble/Take:	+0.895 (-0.011)	กำ0.008 (+0.888..+0.903)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.093)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.7%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		99.7%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 57 minutes

Messages In This Thread

• Cube action ATS?
  John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 2 January 2016, at 2:50 p.m.
  • Cube action ATS?
    garyo -- Saturday, 2 January 2016, at 5:26 p.m.
  • Cube action ATS?
    Sean Garber -- Sunday, 3 January 2016, at 12:00 a.m.
  • OTB & RO
    John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 3 January 2016, at 9:07 p.m.
    • Variant (1 pip different)
      Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 10 January 2016, at 7:37 a.m.