Thanks for the advice, Timothy. I guess I tried to group a couple of positions with similar theme to maybe scoop a piece of general advice (apart of the hints for specific problems of course). I accept it to be a not effective forum approach.
Below are the rollouts and contrasting variants.
Pos. 1.
An auto-pilot blunder of mine. I've played the second best move here. But all those resulting blots are too much. It pays a crazy 20,8% gammons for only 3,3% wins.
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 106 | | 13 point match | pip: 171
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----ABBACa-a-B--bcbb-Cb-bA:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:13:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 8/4 | eq: -0,592 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37,42% (G:6,78% B:0,26%)
62,58% (G:20,51% B:0,27%) | Conf.: ± 0,013 (-0,605...-0,579) - [100,0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 18 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 13/9* | eq: -0,741 (-0,149) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40,73% (G:9,72% B:0,43%)
59,27% (G:41,25% B:3,99%) | Conf.: ± 0,029 (-0,770...-0,712) - [0,0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 14 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 8/6 | eq: -0,757 (-0,165) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31,94% (G:4,94% B:0,15%)
68,06% (G:17,40% B:0,24%) | Conf.: ± 0,011 (-0,767...-0,746) - [0,0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 09 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 13/11* | eq: -0,795 (-0,203) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38,03% (G:8,29% B:0,31%)
61,97% (G:37,90% B:2,41%) | Conf.: ± 0,030 (-0,825...-0,764) - [0,0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 19 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Pos. 1a.
Compared to Pos. 1., player on roll is adjusted 7/13. More than enough to give an opportunity for profitable transaction of 8,1% gammons for 8,9% wins between B/23 13/9* and B/23 8/6. The other, coarse-looking attacking play is a good deal too, trading 6,5% gammons for 5,1% wins.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 106 | | 13 point match | pip: 177
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----ABB-Ca-a-C--bcbb-Cb-bA:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:13:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 13/9* | eq: -0,319 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46,11% (G:10,45% B:0,45%)
53,90% (G:31,24% B:0,90%) | Conf.: ± 0,020 (-0,339...-0,299) - [100,0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 15 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 13/11* | eq: -0,439 (-0,120) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42,26% (G:8,97% B:0,37%)
57,74% (G:29,56% B:0,71%) | Conf.: ± 0,023 (-0,462...-0,416) - [0,0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 47 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | Bar/23 8/4 | eq: -0,607 (-0,288) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37,24% (G:6,45% B:0,26%)
62,76% (G:23,13% B:0,26%) | Conf.: ± 0,019 (-0,625...-0,588) - [0,0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 21 seconds |
|
| |
1 807 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 808 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Pos. 2.
I've secured with 9/2. The trick is to spot that we are so much behind in the race, that we loose plenty of gammons anyway. Once You see it, it's probably logical to go all the way and after 23/17 continue with 17/16.
23/16 in comparison to my short-sighted 9/2 pays only 2,7% gammons more for a healthy 2,5% wins.
     
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 68 | | 13 point match | pip: 158
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---BCBBa-A-------A-bd-eDc-:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:13:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/16 | eq: -0,273 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42,50% (G:6,08% B:0,21%)
57,50% (G:38,35% B:1,60%) | Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,280...-0,266) - [99,9%]
Duration: 17 minutes 20 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/17 9/8 | eq: -0,288 (-0,016) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41,09% (G:5,77% B:0,20%)
58,91% (G:35,62% B:1,13%) | Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,295...-0,282) - [0,1%]
Duration: 16 minutes 14 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 23/17 4/3 | eq: -0,298 (-0,025) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40,92% (G:5,81% B:0,22%)
59,08% (G:36,51% B:1,29%) | Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,305...-0,291) - [0,0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 35 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 17/16 9/3 | eq: -0,325 (-0,052) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40,00% (G:5,54% B:0,19%)
60,00% (G:35,35% B:1,21%) | Conf.: ± 0,006 (-0,331...-0,319) - [0,0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 07 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 9/2 | eq: -0,331 (-0,058) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40,05% (G:5,47% B:0,19%)
59,95% (G:35,59% B:1,26%) | Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,338...-0,324) - [0,0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 42 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Pos. 2a.
Compared to Pos. 2., player on roll is adjusted 23/5. Removing a chunk from the racing deficit makes the running play risk too much gammons. 23/16 vs 9/2 would pay a sound 7,6% gammons for only 1,3% wins.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 68 | | 13 point match | pip: 140
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---BCCBa-A-------A-bd-eCc-:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:13:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 9/2 | eq: -0,205 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39,79% (G:4,81% B:0,14%)
60,21% (G:20,90% B:0,50%) | Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,212...-0,198) - [99,1%]
Duration: 4 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 17/16 9/3 | eq: -0,217 (-0,012) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39,31% (G:4,81% B:0,15%)
60,69% (G:21,52% B:0,53%) | Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,224...-0,210) - [0,9%]
Duration: 4 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 23/16 | eq: -0,234 (-0,029) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41,06% (G:4,90% B:0,15%)
58,94% (G:28,50% B:0,83%) | Conf.: ± 0,008 (-0,243...-0,226) - [0,0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 07 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 23/17 9/8 | eq: -0,256 (-0,051) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38,69% (G:4,71% B:0,14%)
61,31% (G:23,40% B:0,54%) | Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,263...-0,249) - [0,0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 19 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Pos. 3.
I played the second best play here to reduce gammons losses. I was actually surprised that keeping the checker on our 6pt. alive makes so much difference in win %. 23/17 trades 4,5% gammons for 2,3% wins, making it slightly correct.
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 32 | | 13 point match | pip: 145
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BBBC-A------------b--eEe-:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:13:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/17 | eq: -1,563 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 11,23% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
88,77% (G:77,78% B:2,89%) | Conf.: ± 0,004 (-1,566...-1,559) - [100,0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 02 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/21 6/2 | eq: -1,582 (-0,019) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 8,85% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
91,15% (G:73,32% B:3,42%) | Conf.: ± 0,004 (-1,586...-1,578) - [0,0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 46 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Pos. 3a.
Compared to Pos. 3., player on roll is adjusted 6/9. An obvious variant, where stopping at 21pt. keeps the blot on the other side of the board still alive. 23/21 9/5 wins both more games and looses less gammons.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 32 | | 13 point match | pip: 148
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BBBC----A---------b--eEe-:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:13:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 23/21 9/5 | eq: -1,503 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 13,01% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
86,99% (G:75,25% B:3,94%) | Conf.: ± 0,007 (-1,510...-1,497) - [100,0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 26 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 23/17 | eq: -1,582 (-0,079) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 10,62% (G:0,00% B:0,00%)
89,38% (G:78,31% B:2,64%) | Conf.: ± 0,005 (-1,586...-1,577) - [0,0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 12 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Pos. 4.
Played double-run here. Thought about it as of a routine play. Was quite surprised it doesn't win more games at all. The gapped opp's board has something to do here. I guess the race is close enough, that we can still win some games after being hit and entering in 2nd or 3rd shake. After double-run, if we get second blot in the air, we don't have this window.
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 77 | | 13 point match | pip: 72
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BEBBB------b----bBbb-bbc-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:13:10 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 18/11 | eq: -0,236 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32,78% (G:0,85% B:0,01%)
67,22% (G:1,68% B:0,01%) | Conf.: ± 0,004 (-0,241...-0,232) - [100,0%]
Duration: 36,3 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 18/16 18/13 | eq: -0,311 (-0,075) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32,89% (G:0,72% B:0,01%)
67,11% (G:8,98% B:0,18%) | Conf.: ± 0,004 (-0,315...-0,307) - [0,0%]
Duration: 37,1 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Pos. 4a.
Compared to Pos. 4., player on roll is adjusted 2/5(2) 2/4 and opp 1/4(2) 1/6. Double-run looks routine again, paying 9,0% gammons for 5,7% wins.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 88 | | 13 point match | pip: 80
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-BBBCD------b----bBcbbbb--:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:13:10 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 18/16 18/13 | eq: -0,388 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31,15% (G:0,61% B:0,01%)
68,85% (G:12,44% B:0,36%) | Conf.: ± 0,004 (-0,392...-0,384) - [100,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 24 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 18/11 | eq: -0,424 (-0,036) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 25,39% (G:1,07% B:0,03%)
74,61% (G:3,37% B:0,05%) | Conf.: ± 0,004 (-0,427...-0,420) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 31 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2