In Position 1 White trails by 6 pips and has a pass. In Position 2 White trails by 14 pips but has a take. Take a look at Positions 3 and 4. White trails by 14 pips in both, but the rollout data indicate that White has more racing equity from the 20pt than from the 21pt. Another factor to be considered here is the home-board wastage of Blue and White when they begin bearing off in Positions 1 and 2.
In Position 1, White already has lot of home-board wastage and may be forced to increase his wastage by breaking his 6pt next turn. White rates to start bearing off with a lot more home-board wastage than Blue.
In Position 2, Blue may well be the one who starts bearing off with more home-board wastage than White. Some of Blue’s 5s are a bit problematic. Blue’s 55 creates a double gap in his prime, increasing the chance of a future shot. Blue’s 55 is actually a worse roll than his 63. Also, Blue’s 54 65 force him to break an outside point other than the 10pt, increasing the chance of a future shot. Even Blue’s 53 52 51 force him to go deep in his board, increasing his home-board wastage. Blue's five-prime may look pretty to some, but Blue will not always be able to clear his points in order without incident.
When Blue begins to bear off in Position 2, he will frequently have very few checkers on his 6pt and 5pt and he will often have several checkers deep on his 1pt, 2pt and 3pt. As Blue clears his outside points, he will usually be forced to put checkers deep in his home board, increasing his wastage. Blue rates to begin bearing off with a lot more home-board wastage in Position 2 than in Position 1.
White trails by only 6 pips in Position 1 but has a pass. If Blue led by the same count (79-85) in a race (assuming both sides have minimal wastage, then White would have an easy take. In other words, the contact is in Blue’s favor in Position 1.
In Position 2, however, the contact is in White’s favor. If Blue led by the same count (100-114) in a race, then White would have a pass. However, with the contact in Position 2, White actually has a comfortable take. In other words, the contact works to White’s advantage in Position 2.
Let's compare Positions 2 and 4. In both, White trails by 14 pips, but has a take in Position 2 and probably a tiny pass in Position 4. Although Blue has bad 5s in Position 2, both his 5s and 4s play well in Position 4. None of Blue's 4s in Position 4 force him to leave a gap. Blue will probably begin his bearoff with a more efficient racing position in Position 4 than in Position 2. Even so, the contact still works to White's advantage in Position 4, where White has a tiny pass. White would have a much bigger pass if he were behind 100-114 in a race of minimal wastage.
Finally, let's compare Positions 5 and 6. White passes in Position 5 but takes in Position 6 with the same count. Contact is therefore to Blue's advantage in Position 5.
Position 1.
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| XGID=--BBbCDBB----------bbbbbc-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 78.24% (G:1.69% B:0.02%) | 78.52% (G:1.57% B:0.01%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 21.76% (G:0.19% B:0.00%) | 21.48% (G:0.17% B:0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.580 | +1.169 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.906 (-0.094) | ±0.002 (+0.904..+0.909) |
| Double/Take: | +1.037 (+0.037) | ±0.004 (+1.033..+1.041) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 4 minutes 48 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Position 2.
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| XGID=---BBbCBBBB----a-abcbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 76.73% (G:0.82% B:0.01%) | 77.00% (G:0.75% B:0.01%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 23.27% (G:0.37% B:0.01%) | 23.00% (G:0.34% B:0.01%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.539 | +1.088 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.892 (-0.061) | ±0.003 (+0.889..+0.895) |
| Double/Take: | +0.953 | ±0.004 (+0.949..+0.957) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.047) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 30 minutes 37 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Position 3.
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| XGID=----bBEDBB-----a-abcbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 78.73% (G:1.73% B:0.01%) | 79.55% (G:1.28% B:0.02%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 21.27% (G:0.44% B:0.01%) | 20.45% (G:0.29% B:0.01%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.588 | +1.202 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.954 (-0.046) | ±0.002 (+0.952..+0.956) |
| Double/Take: | +1.076 (+0.076) | ±0.004 (+1.072..+1.080) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 24 minutes 25 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Position 4.
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| XGID=----BbEDBB-----a-abcbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 78.12% (G:0.74% B:0.01%) | 78.32% (G:0.58% B:0.01%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 21.88% (G:0.21% B:0.00%) | 21.68% (G:0.15% B:0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.568 | +1.141 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.903 (-0.097) | ±0.003 (+0.901..+0.906) |
| Double/Take: | +1.007 (+0.007) | ±0.004 (+1.003..+1.010) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 6376 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 27 minutes 44 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Position 5.
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| XGID=----bBEDBB-------bbcbbb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 77.45% (G:1.69% B:0.01%) | 78.06% (G:1.32% B:0.02%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 22.55% (G:0.46% B:0.01%) | 21.94% (G:0.34% B:0.01%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.561 | +1.142 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.933 (-0.067) | ±0.003 (+0.930..+0.936) |
| Double/Take: | +1.007 (+0.007) | ±0.004 (+1.002..+1.011) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 99.9% | |
| Duration: 22 minutes 16 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Position 6.
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| XGID=----CDD----BBcb-a--dcb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 77.88% (G:0.01% B:0.00%) | 77.86% (G:0.01% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 22.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 22.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.558 | +1.115 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.864 (-0.109) | ±0.003 (+0.861..+0.866) |
| Double/Take: | +0.972 | ±0.004 (+0.969..+0.976) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.028) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 101 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+ | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 7 minutes 31 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10