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Hit or not--is there a formula for this?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 22 May 2016, at 11:42 p.m.

In Response To: Hit or not--is there a formula for this? (phil simborg)

There isn't a formula that I know of but I have found that the following approach often works:

1. First assume that if you don't hit, it will be a pure race. Use racing formulas to figure out your winning chances.

2. Next analyze the hit by splitting into two cases: (a) you are hit back immediately and (b) you are not hit back immediately. Usually I find that it is O.K. to ignore any future hitting.

In some positions, you can even assume that if you are hit back immediately then you will lose and if you are not hit back immediately then you will win. That's not quite the case here. I think it's a reasonable approximation to assume that if Blue hits and is not hit back then he will win (except perhaps if White rolls an immediate 66), but if Blue is hit back, he does have some racing chances. But again, I think it's reasonable to assume that it's going to be a straight race from this point onwards, so one can use racing formulas again.

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