It turns out to be a huge double and a big take. Enormous value in activating the gammons. (It's a big redouble too, but you're already at .610 holding the cube).
If you safety the rearward blot to the 6-pt it becomes a Beaver (only 6 shots). If you shift the single blot around elsewhere in the outfield in range of the shot from the 20-pt, it's still a small double, though you're down in the .1 to .2 range.
Given that in these latter situations I'm down in the race and a big underdog to hit, it's harder see the double (and less of an error to beaver). I'm sort of wondering whether people have an over-the-board method of thinking this sort of situation through -- maybe breaking down my 36 rolls into hitting / non- hitting entries / dances and applying some metric to it?
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| XGID=-BBBCBB-----b-a--a-eA--bdA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 64.61% (G:24.71% B:0.36%) | 64.61% (G:25.25% B:0.35%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 35.39% (G:1.82% B:0.02%) | 35.39% (G:1.66% B:0.02%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.525 | +1.063 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.244 (-0.526) | ±0.008 (+0.236..+0.252) |
| Double/Take: | +0.770 | ±0.011 (+0.759..+0.781) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.230) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 1 minute 08 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10