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Rollout (I made the same mistake as Keene)

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 4 July 2016, at 9:55 p.m.

In Response To: Volunteer the indirect shot now? (Timothy Chow)

Failing to double before the roll is not really a mistake, according to the third diagram below, but it does affect the play—but in the opposite direction from what Keene suggested.

The difference is significant enough that I wonder if XG is misplaying something somewhere. I haven't checked.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 91 Unlimited Game pip: 75 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CBBAbC-B---B---a--bbbbbb-:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 65

1.	Rollout1	12/1	eq: +0.605
	Player: Opponent: 64.68% (G:0.55% B:0.00%) 35.32% (G:2.03% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.601...+0.610) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 15 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/3 8/2	eq: +0.496 (-0.109)
	Player: Opponent: 64.49% (G:2.45% B:0.02%) 35.51% (G:2.62% B:0.08%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.489...+0.504) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 58 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

---

With cube turned:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 91 Unlimited Game pip: 75 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CBBAbC-B---B---a--bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 65

1.	Rollout1	8/3 8/2	eq: +0.241
	Player: Opponent: 64.49% (G:2.45% B:0.02%) 35.51% (G:2.62% B:0.08%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.237...+0.245) - [92.6%] Duration: 2 minutes 48 seconds
2.	Rollout1	12/1	eq: +0.237 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 64.84% (G:0.49% B:0.00%) 35.16% (G:2.02% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.234...+0.240) - [7.4%] Duration: 2 minutes 40 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

---

Cube decision before roll:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 91 Unlimited Game pip: 75 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CBBAbC-B---B---a--bbbbbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	69.02% (G:1.02% B:0.01%)	69.48% (G:0.81% B:0.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30.98% (G:1.78% B:0.03%)	30.52% (G:1.51% B:0.02%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.373	+0.765
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.659 (0.000)	±0.003 (+0.656..+0.663)
Double/Take:	+0.660	±0.004 (+0.656..+0.664)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.340)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		51.1%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 22 minutes 58 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

Messages In This Thread

• Volunteer the indirect shot now?
  Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 2 July 2016, at 8:19 p.m.
  • Volunteer the indirect shot now?
    Keene -- Saturday, 2 July 2016, at 8:37 p.m.
  • Rollout (I made the same mistake as Keene)
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 4 July 2016, at 9:55 p.m.
    • Rollout (I made the same mistake as Keene)
      Ray Kershaw -- Tuesday, 5 July 2016, at 7:24 a.m.
      • Rollout (I made the same mistake as Keene)
        Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 5 July 2016, at 8:56 a.m.
        • Rollout (I made the same mistake as Keene)
          Ray Kershaw -- Tuesday, 5 July 2016, at 11:34 a.m.
      • Rollout (I made the same mistake as Keene)
        Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 5 July 2016, at 11:02 p.m.