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XGR++ RO

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Saturday, 9 July 2016, at 2:56 p.m.

In Response To: Accounting for uncertainty (Bob Koca)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 80 11 point match pip: 112 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-BBBBB-A---A---A-Bdc-cca-:1:1:1:00:1:0:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	87.203% (G:5.026% B:0.126%)	90.340% (G:5.350% B:0.141%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	12.797% (G:1.445% B:0.021%)	9.660% (G:2.349% B:0.053%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.7818	+1.6884
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+1.0187	±0.0023 (+1.0164..+1.0210)
Redouble/Take:	+1.6384 (+0.6197)	±0.0044 (+1.6339..+1.6428)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.0000 (-0.0187)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 2.9%
Rollout details
2282 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 78623594 Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller++
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 11 hours 36 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Accounting for uncertainty
  Bob Koca -- Friday, 8 July 2016, at 4:27 p.m.
  • Accounting for uncertainty
    Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 8 July 2016, at 4:41 p.m.
    • Accounting for uncertainty
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 8 July 2016, at 4:59 p.m.
    • Accounting for uncertainty
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 9 July 2016, at 2:56 a.m.
  • Accounting for uncertainty
    Rick Janowski -- Friday, 8 July 2016, at 4:50 p.m.
    • I am referring to second position there *NM*
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 8 July 2016, at 4:52 p.m.
  • Accounting for uncertainty
    Rick Janowski -- Friday, 8 July 2016, at 5:22 p.m.
    • Accounting for uncertainty
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 8 July 2016, at 5:29 p.m.
      • Accounting for uncertainty - Agreed *NM*
        Rick Janowski -- Friday, 8 July 2016, at 5:37 p.m.
    • Accounting for uncertainty
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 9 July 2016, at 3:57 a.m.
      • Accounting for uncertainty
        Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 9 July 2016, at 7:56 a.m.
        • Accounting for uncertainty
          neilkaz -- Saturday, 9 July 2016, at 3:00 p.m.
          • Accounting for uncertainty
            Rick Janowski -- Saturday, 9 July 2016, at 3:55 p.m.
            • Accounting for uncertainty
              Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 9 July 2016, at 4:21 p.m.
              • Accounting for uncertainty
                neilkaz -- Saturday, 9 July 2016, at 4:48 p.m.
              • Accounting for uncertainty
                Rick Janowski -- Sunday, 10 July 2016, at 3:03 a.m.
  • Accounting for uncertainty--Uncertainty works both ways
    Phil Simborg -- Saturday, 9 July 2016, at 3:08 a.m.
    • Accounting for uncertainty--Uncertainty works both ways
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 9 July 2016, at 3:25 a.m.
    • Accounting for uncertainty--Uncertainty works both ways
      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 9 July 2016, at 9:13 p.m.
  • XGR++ RO
    neilkaz -- Saturday, 9 July 2016, at 2:56 p.m.
  • Accounting for uncertainty - Variant Position
    Rick Janowski -- Sunday, 10 July 2016, at 3:45 a.m.
    • Accounting for uncertainty - Variant Position
      Casper Van der Tak -- Sunday, 10 July 2016, at 6:43 a.m.
      • Accounting for uncertainty - Variant Position
        Rick Janowski -- Sunday, 10 July 2016, at 9:30 a.m.
        • Accounting for uncertainty - Variant Position
          Casper Van der Tak -- Sunday, 10 July 2016, at 10:17 a.m.
          • Accounting for uncertainty - Variant Position
            Rick Janowski -- Sunday, 10 July 2016, at 6:32 p.m.