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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 14 July 2016, at 12:22 a.m.

In Response To: If you blunder here you may be in good company (Timothy Chow)

XG 3-ply doubles here.

As others have pointed out, 4-away/many-away scores cannot simply be categorized as "scores where I am leading." The 4-away player should sometimes double more aggressively than for money in gammonish positions, but not if the gammons are likely to be voided by a recube to 4.

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 180 7 point match pip: 124 score: 3 Blue is Player 2
XGID=-aaBbBDB-b--aD---bAbbb----:0:0:1:00:3:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	61.62% (G:33.73% B:3.92%)	61.38% (G:34.85% B:6.70%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	38.38% (G:7.50% B:0.37%)	38.62% (G:8.06% B:0.77%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.641	+1.318
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.624	±0.022 (+0.601..+0.646)
Double/Take:	+0.427 (-0.196)	±0.035 (+0.393..+0.462)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.376)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 25.5%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 54 minutes 16 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---

XG 3-ply:

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 180 7 point match pip: 124 score: 3 Blue is Player 2
XGID=-aaBbBDB-b--aD---bAbbb----:0:0:1:00:3:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 3-ply	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	63.09% (G:33.65% B:1.67%)	63.38% (G:32.87% B:1.57%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	36.91% (G:6.26% B:0.33%)	36.62% (G:6.30% B:0.33%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.659	+1.416
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.703 (-0.001)
Double/Take:	+0.703
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.297)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• If you blunder here you may be in good company
  Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 12 July 2016, at 11:08 p.m.
  • If you blunder here you may be in good company
    garyo -- Wednesday, 13 July 2016, at 12:07 a.m.
  • If you blunder here you may be in good company
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 13 July 2016, at 12:28 a.m.
  • If you blunder here you may be in good company
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 13 July 2016, at 1:06 a.m.
    • Who can explain this position pair (RO info)
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 13 July 2016, at 5:11 p.m.
      • Who can explain this position pair (RO info)
        Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 13 July 2016, at 5:25 p.m.
      • Who can explain this position pair (RO info)
        Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 13 July 2016, at 5:28 p.m.
        • Who can explain this position pair (RO info)
          Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 13 July 2016, at 6:27 p.m.
      • Who can explain this position pair (RO info)
        Rick Janowski -- Wednesday, 13 July 2016, at 6:36 p.m.
      • My Theory
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 13 July 2016, at 7:47 p.m.
        • My Theory
          Maik Stiebler -- Thursday, 14 July 2016, at 7:50 a.m.
      • Analysis using "Take Points in Money Games" Formula
        Rick Janowski -- Wednesday, 13 July 2016, at 10:09 p.m.
        • Analysis using "Take Points in Money Games" Formula
          Bob Koca -- Thursday, 14 July 2016, at 1:42 a.m.
  • If you blunder here you may be in good company
    Karol Szczerek -- Wednesday, 13 July 2016, at 3:04 p.m.
  • If you blunder here you may be in good company
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 13 July 2016, at 4:12 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 14 July 2016, at 12:22 a.m.
    • Rollout
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 14 July 2016, at 1:45 a.m.
    • Rollout for unlimited
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 14 July 2016, at 3:07 a.m.