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BGonline.org Forums
Another score-based non-contact cube, from r.g.b.
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Another score-based non-contact cube, from r.g.b. (Mick Z)
Date: Friday, 5 August 2016, at 12:57 a.m.
What's the trailer's takepoint ATS? Pass and it's 9a-Crawford with 6% MWC, take and lose is 0%, take and win makes it Crawford-3a with 75% MWC. So the tp is 8%. The leader's redoubling window is real narrow ATS - opens around 89% and closes around 92%.
I think you need to use EPC to estimate each sides winning chances. Per Trice, Blue's nearly no miss position is 1 pip worse than what the EPC would be if all 8 were stacked on the ace point. 29 + 1 = 30. White has 13 off so his EPC is the combined pip count of his 2 stragglers + 5.2 = 40.2.
How to estimate winning chances in a position where the EPC's are 30-40.2. One way is to think of a pip v pip race (where all or nearly all of both sides checkers were on their 6-5-4 points) where the side on roll has a pip count of 24 vs. the opponent with 34. That would translate to EPC's of ~30-40.2. How big a fav would the side on roll be in this race. I get ~91% using Kleinman.
That's for a pip v pip race. Don't know if any adjustment should be made because we have a nearly no miss v 2 stragglers rather than a pip v pip. It does seem that the vig should favor Blue since his non-doubles play about equally well (i.e. 32 vs 65) so maybe there's less variance here than in a pip v pip race.
I'd probably be cautious and not recube here since it's so hard to estimate your winning chances to the exact percent in this position.
NR/T.
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