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BGonline.org Forums
Apropos Keene's recent post...
Posted By: Karol Szczerek In Response To: Apropos Keene's recent post... (Karol Szczerek)
Date: Saturday, 6 August 2016, at 10:08 p.m.
[quote] After banana split of 4/1* plus fan I feel we have close to a cash, so I'd count it as almost 25% wins, say 23%. After opp's enters, we're probably down to 20-25% department, so .75 x 20-25% = 15-18%. Summing our wins gives close to 40% figure. [/quote]
I've got carried away with the evaluation (underlined above) of this cube decision. As I analyzed it here, it's in fact a "close" no double. Counting typical gammon ratios for such type of position of 1/2 for the attacker and 1/3 for the defender, one might roughly estimate win/gammons as 60/30% for the attacker and 40/13% for the defender OTB, which are close to the real ones.
I count difference in wins plus difference in gammons, x2 because of a double and then minus 0.2 for a typical recube vig: (.6 - .4) + (.3 - .13) = .37 x 2 = .74 - .2 = .54 equity (after double). This is the level where you'd have to have a really good excuse to properly double, hence a close no double situation.
Counting again - 25% fans with a proper 60% win coefficient gives 15% (instead of original 23%), and adding 15-18% from the scenarios when opp enters, gives a final figure of 30-33% (close to the real one). With this number, the decision becomes an easy one, since there is not much difference in the win% after 9/6 and 4/1*, but we loose considerably more gammons after 4/1*.
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