BGonline.org Forums

Storming the Prime

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Thursday, 18 August 2016, at 3:20 a.m.

In Response To: Storming the Prime (Karol Szczerek)

I think White's true takepoint (after adjusting for g's and cube vig) is ~28%. White's very likely to get a deucepoint game and his prime gives him real "win by going forward" chances as well. So the take looks clear. Should Blue double? I count 14 pretty good numbers for Blue (65,55,54,53,52,51,41,11), 3 bad numbers (66,63), and the other 19 either hit and/or move the back checker from 24/22. My estimate is that Blue wins 24.5 of 36 games which is about 5% away from White's true takepoint. That's close enough for an initial cube if you have at least 9 market losers. I think you do since a pretty good roll by Blue followed by a dance from White should do it (plus maybe a couple others from one of Blue's better numbers from the other 19 category). D/T looks correct to me.

Messages In This Thread

• Storming the Prime
  Karol Szczerek -- Wednesday, 17 August 2016, at 9:44 p.m.
  • Storming the Prime
    John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 18 August 2016, at 3:20 a.m.
  • Storming the Prime
    Casper Van der Tak -- Thursday, 18 August 2016, at 8:47 a.m.
  • Storming the Prime
    Keene -- Thursday, 18 August 2016, at 4:05 p.m.
  • Storming the Prime - RO & Variants
    Karol Szczerek -- Friday, 19 August 2016, at 10:30 p.m.